As a sizable Red Sox homer, I see no better way to kickoff my list of top 10 prospects than with the Red Sox. The system is DEFINITELY down from past years but I think there is a lot of talent at the lower levels which will help bring things back within the next few years. The Red Sox are one of the best in baseball at using their later picks to sign overslot players (as we saw this year with David Renfroe, Brandon Jacobs and Kendal Volz), and generate a fair amount of prospects that way as a result.
Anyhow, without further ado, here are your top 10 Red Sox prospects (Anyone listed in a top 100 write-up will have their information pasted into the new post):
1. Casey Kelly – RHP, Boston Red Sox DOB 10/4/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A 48.1 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 39 K, 2.43 FIP, 55% GB
Hi-A: 46.2 IP, 33 H, 7 BB, 35 K, 3.46 FIP, 51% GB
Casey Kelly is a personal favorite of mine, largely because I’m also a Red Sox fan. He signed for a huge bonus as a late first round pick last year, and he signed on the condition that he be given a shot to stick at SS. He has not hit to this point at the position, so I will not list his hitting stats. It’s clear to me that his future is on the mound, and I think when he dedicates all of his attention to that, his numbers are going to skyrocket. Already we can see great control of the strike zone, strong ground ball tendencies and at least some ability to miss bats, something that I think will improve as he dedicates complete time to the position. Still, he’s fanning over 20% and walking less than 5%, a ratio you’ll always take. He’s also reached Hi-A despite the fact that he won’t turn 20 until after the season ends. He was mighty lucky, with an average on balls in play of just .237, though his stuff may be so strong that he’s hitting the poor part of the bat on overmatched hitters quite a bit. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball right now, though scouts think he’ll add velocity as time goes on. His secondary stuff is very advanced for his age, and his mechanics are smooth. You’re looking at a front-end starting candidate with a complete repertoire and few question marks once he moves to pitching full time. I would be very surprised he is not a top ten prospect during his first year as a full-time pitcher, which hopefully comes next year.
2. Josh Reddick — OF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 2/19/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .277/.352/.520, .320 BABIP, .243 IsoP
AAA: .127/.190/.183, .155 BABIP, .056 IsoP (79 PA)
MLB: .182/.229/.394, .227 BABIP, .212 IsoP (35 PA)
Reddick was rushed to the majors because of injuries, but I was just very impressed by the way the ball jumps right off of his bat. He’s had kind of a difficult season this year because he’s been asked to become more patient (10.5% walk rate at AA is 1.4% higher than any other year, but 21.6% strikeout rate is 2.7% higher than any other season), but he’s still produced a very nice Isolated Power number in a luck neutral situation. He’s a plus defender at the corners and an average defender in center, and he should be poised to attempt AAA next year. He’s never going to be a walk machine but it does seem like the Sox have effectively pushed him away from the Francoeurian path that he was headed down in 2007. I really like his chances of being an effective regular for Boston by the start of 2010, but his current year numbers preclude a higher grade.
3. Lars Anderson — 1B, Boston Red Sox DOB 9/25/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
AA: .233/.328/.345 63 BB-114 K .112 IsoP 13% LD
What an absolutely disastrous season for Lars Anderson, as his season supports pretty much the worst possible scenario of the red flags that were in view last season. Anderson reminds me a bit of Max Ramirez in the sense that he’s had a very high average on balls in play throughout his career (.365, .440, .367, .435) without the speed or line-drive percentage to support it. His average on balls in play this year was low at .293, but not unreasonably low. His walk rate dropped 5.3% at the same level in 2009, though he also cut his strikeout rate by 4.1%. His IsoP fell by .98 from 2008 at AA and his LD% dropped 6%, though the line-drive numbers aren’t terribly reliable in the minors. With that said, is this the true Lars Anderson? I don’t think so, personally. He was 21 all season at AA, so he was young for the level, and he was extremely highly regarded from a scouting perspective entering the season. There is a bit of a concern that he’s not very athletic, as I believe a scout referred to him as a 21 year-old Mark Grace (no athletic compliment)
4. Ryan Westmoreland — OF/COF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 4/27/90 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
Lo-A: .294/.401/.486, 38 BB-49 K, .188 IsoP, .353 BABIP, 17% LD
Westmoreland is easily the prospect with the most “upside” in the Red Sox system, as he has the defensive tools to play centerfield, the power potential to be a middle of the order threat and the plate discipline to fit with the Red Sox style. After getting a $2,000,000 signing bonus from the Red Sox in 2008, Westmoreland sat out the year due to injury and may not have been fully healthy until midway through this season. He reminds me a bit of Mike Trout from the 2009 draft, as he combines good contact ability (low strikeout rate and good line drive rate for a rookie) with developing doubles power that should materialize as time moves on. He was a bit lucky this year with the average on balls in play but it’s frankly not hard to imagine it being consistently that high given his raw speed and measurables. Westmoreland reminds me of someone who could be a Nick Markakis type as things develop (.300/.400/.500, plus defense) and I think the Red Sox would be hard-pressed to find another prospect with this type of ceiling in their system.
5. Ryan Kalish — CF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 3/28/88 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A (137 PA): .307/.433/.509, 25 BB-20 K, 12% LD%, .337 BABIP, .202 IsoP
AA: .271/.341/.440, 42 BB-87 K, 15% LD%, .320 BABIP, .169 IsoP
Kalish is a really interesting player in the Red Sox farm system because he doesn’t really project as a plus-plus power or speed threat. He has the range to handle center and may have to to be a completely viable asset depending on how well his power develops. He makes good decisions on the basepaths and really gets the most out of his considerable toolbox. It was clear to the Red Sox that he had mastered Hi-A and did at least average, perhaps better, as a 21 year-old in AA. His performance was luck neutral and even while being very young for the level, he kept his strikeout rate under 20% and his walk rate was nearly 10%, as well. His IsoP dipped from .202 to .169 in AA, which means he’ll have to be able to handle center in the bigs or develop a bit more power. The Red Sox have been outspoken about the value of on-base percentage over slugging percentage, and I agree, but I still don’t know if he projects to do enough power wise to justify his good OBP skills. There have also been some reports that he’s not hitting enough line drives, and is instead hitting a lot of grounders. He improved his percentage at AA but it is still low, and he’ll need to work on producing more line drives as they fall for hits the majority of the time. If he can stay healthy and continue to work on his game, I expect he’ll take over in CF in 2011 or 2012 when Ellsbury becomes a bit more expensive. He may also get a crack as a 4th OF as a September call-up or at the beginning of 2011.
6. Anthony Rizzo
7. Michael Bowden
8. Junichi Tazawa
9. Alex Wilson
10. Stolmy Pimental
HM: Stephen Fife, Luis Exposito, Che-Hsuan Lin