BaseBallstotheWall

Steven Johnson is far from the best prospect in the Baltimore Orioles system, as he’s well behind folks like Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton and Josh Bell, but it’s still clear to me that he’s a prospect worth talking about and someone I’ve had my eye on for more than a year. In all honesty, he reminds me (primarily statistically) of current Orioles starter David Hernandez, who did a great job of missing bats in the minor leagues but got very little attention until he made the majors. Granted, he hasn’t done very well in his major league opportunity, but he was a guy who deserved to get there. I see Johnson very similarly.

Johnson was the less heralded player the Orioles acquired in the swap with the Dodgers for LHP George Sherrill, as he was overshadowed often by the aforementioned Josh Bell. He was so overshadowed, in fact, that the Orioles did not even include him on their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V draft. The Giants swooped in and took him, and then thought so highly of him that they opted to offer him back to the Orioles instead of giving him a roster spot, storing him on the DL or attempting to obtain his rights.

The distinction to be made is that while Johnson is not a top prospect by any means, he does enough things well where I find it perplexing that neither team thought he was worth at least protecting somewhere on their roster, particularly given his reasonable track record of success statistically, particularly as it concerns missing bats. Since the start of the 2008 season, between ages 20 and 22, Johnson has recorded the following strikeout percentages: 19.2%, 23.1%, 24.6%, 33.3%, 23.7% and 22%. In a situation where his level has been age appropriate, it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more interest in this player. Now, admittedly, there are questions about command (only one of those six percentages came with a walk percentage of less than 8.4%) and flyball tendencies (only once above 34% in that span), but I think it’s more of a “take what you can get” mentality with non-elite prospects than anything else.

In 2010, through 43 innings at AA Bowie for the Orioles, Johnson has allowed 35 hits while recording 40 strikeouts to only 17 walks (22.9% and 9.9%, respectively). There are some definite warning signs (.270 BABIP, 31% GB Rate, 4.39 FIP compared to a 3.35 ERA), so again, he’s not as good as those numbers suggest. The last time he had a significant sample size (96 innings in Hi-A in 2009 as a 21 year-old), Johnson posted very similar numbers (10.1% walk rate, 24.1% strikeout rate, 5.03 FIP, 3.82 ERA, 24% GB Rate), so I think we have enough data where we can safely assume Johnson is basically what he is. He’ll struggle with his command from time-to-time, he’ll miss a fair amount of bats (though we can safely expect that number to drop as he moves up) and he’ll allow some home runs because of the low ground ball rate. If he wants to avoid being David Hernandez two, he’ll have to make sure that his strikeout rate is closer to the 22% than the 14% that Hernandez currently possesses, but at the very least there’s a chance that MIGHT happen, and I remain very surprised that the Orioles weren’t willing to protect a guy so close to the majors who might give them some useful innings for cheap, particularly since they are currently using players like Jason Berken.

There is terribly little scouting information on Johnson available, but the general understanding I have is that he has a low 90’s fastball with a good curveball and a developing change-up. If anyone can add to that I’d love to hear it.

Arguably one of the more controversial prospects in baseball today, Dodgers shortstop Devaris Strange-Gordon (yes, related to Tom Gordon) has seen his stock range anywhere from top 40 to outside the top 125 altogether. Let’s first take a look at his 2009 statistical profile:

2009 Performance (Lo-A):
601 PA .301/.358/.394 43 BB 90 K 73 SB 7.2% BB 15% K .357 BABIP 12% LD .093 IsoP

What’s odd about this statistical profile is that the ranking camps are looking at these things two different ways. To start, Strange-Gordon is extremely raw, having played little organized baseball as well as being the physical equivalent of an early teenager in terms of body type. Those folks considering his rawness suggest that his .301 average, 7% walk rate, 15% strikeout rate and 73 stolen bases represent a player that hasn’t tapped into his potential. Those arguing that rawness is an excuse for a lack of physical projection will suggest that for a player with speed as his main asset, his stolen base rate was not great, he’s not making enough contact for someone that lives with speed, and it’s very unlikely that he’ll fill out enough to hit even 10-15 homers. There are also rumblings about him that he may eventually move off of shortstop.

For the record, I’m firmly in the first camp, and am largely impressed with Strange-Gordon’s 2009 campaign. I’m not one to terribly dwell on bloodlines like some publications tend to, but a player who can put up a luck-neutral .300 average with a respectable on-base average is someone that’s going to garner my attention. I’m not at all concerned about his age (21) considering his rawness, and I’m not really worried if he doesn’t fill out. I think we can expect his understanding of the strike-zone to improve with time, which should lead to even more walks and less strikeouts. One would also expect his understanding of stealing bases to improve as he, well, steals more bases. Power’s the last thing to come in most players, but frankly, I don’t see it happening with Gordon. His frame is not conducive to weight gain. I just don’t personally think he has to have it to be quite an asset.

For a couple video links, check here. That is some ridiculous speed. For some video of his swing, check here. He looks a lot like Orlando Hudson in his swinging video, and I think that might be a pretty good comparison. They have similar body types and they both seem to have short and compact swings. He’s lunging a bit in the video that I’ve provided but the swing is level and compact, and for someone as raw as he is, shows considerable upside.

Michael Saunders is one of my favorite players in the minors, and frankly, one of the more underappreciated ones as well. Let’s take a look at his statistical profile from last season for the start of our analysis, courtesy of first inning:

2009 Performance:
AAA 281 PA .310/.374/.544 25 BB 48 K .234 IsoP .342 BABIP 8.9% BB 17.1% K 15% LD
MLB 129 PA .221/.256/.279 06 BB 40 K .058 IsoP .329 BABIP 4.7% BB 31.0% K 15% LD

There are a couple immediate things we can glean from his overall profile that you won’t see reflected in the statistics above, so let’s start with those. Cutting his strikeout rate to 17.1% at AAA was a significant move, as his next lowest number over his career was 22.1%, and that was in his 2008 exposure to AA, though most of his strikeout totals are inflated by small sample size at lower levels. He looked to be comfortably between about 22.5 and 25 percent at the levels where we had significant data, which is still a bit high. He also saw his walk rate dip into the single digits (was between 10 and 11% for most of his minor league career) which may or may not be a bad thing. A cursory glance at his profile suggests as much that he was simply less willing to swing at pitches as any kind of lack of patience. The new-found aggressiveness also resulted in the highest IsoP of his career at AAA, suggesting that the pitches he was swinging at were pitches he could drive.

Interestingly, however, the thing Saunders was lacking at AAA was the ability to make strong, solid line-drive contact. 15% is not a very impressive line drive percentage for a corner outfielder. Indeed, for his minor league career, Saunders was predictably between 14-17% for line drives. That’s something he’ll definitely need to work on as he sees more time in the pros, but there’s not much else to not like (takes walks, avoids strikeouts, has power, brings some speed to the table, etc.). So why is everyone so down on someone that I think is a top 65 prospect at this point? 129 PA at the MLB level, of course. 129 plate appearances isn’t a lot to base anything on, though his low walk rate and high strikeout rate might hint at the aggressiveness shown in AAA not working at the big league level. There was also a spike in ground ball rate and a slight decline in BABIP to a more normalized level. I just don’t think it’s likely that a reliably consistent threat in the lower minors has completely lost it at the major league level. He needs more time. He certainly has age (now just 23) on his side.

From a scouting perspective, Saunders isn’t an elite CF prospect but a passable one; however, where he would really be an asset is in a corner, likely left, for the Mariners. He has a good corner arm and great range for a corner, as well. He’s got enough speed to be a threat on the bases, and he’s really got every tool you could want with a good deal of development to boot. He doesn’t have elite plus power, so he may not be a typical corner outfielder, but he should be useful in some capacity, and soon. For the folks enamored with the distant players, turning out as Saunders has would be a huge win for any of them, and I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more respect for that very reason.

I’m not in love with Saunders swing, as you’ll see here but I am in love with the fact that he’s left-handed. It should definitely help him at least be the strong half of the platoon, which, let’s be honest, is where a player separates himself from the replacement level drek he is competing with. Saunders has a smooth stroke but he has a lot of unnecessary movement before a pitch which I’m never really a fan of. I’m not really in love with his balance or toe-tap, either, and I’m not sure he’s really getting as much weight behind a pitch as he can. He kind of reminds me of Lyle Overbay at the plate, and that may not be a bad comparison, though you’ll add wins for his defense at a premium position and his speed. He does not keep the head of his bat in the zone as often as you’d like to see from a guy that has that level of potential.

Saunders is the type of prospect I flock to, for whatever reason. A legitimate five-tooler with some refinement and coaching who is overlooked for some reason (in this case, his performance in a 129 PA stint in the majors.) I would trade any five-tooler in the low minors for a player like Saunders, who is far from reaching his potential and yet is a much safer bet at this point.

While Zeke Spruill gets all the attention in Atlanta as the hot high-schooler from the 2008 draft, it was Brett DeVall (and, well, Tyler Stovall) who were more highly regarded coming out of school, and who were chosen earlier in the draft. So why isn’t DeVall getting any attention?

Well, for one, DeVall got shutdown about midway through his first pro season with an injury that took a long time to get clarification on. There was a lot of speculation that DeVall was likely headed towards Tommy John Surgery, though it appears now that DeVall may have just had bone spurs in his elbow and that he may not be out all of 2010. We’ll see how that ultimately comes to fruition but right now I’m leaning towards non-TJ since his dad posted that it doesn’t look like he’ll need Tommy John. The other thing that doesn’t excite folks about DeVall is that his primary offering is not a devastating fastball but rather a devastating curveball (his fastball and other pitches are largely regarded as average with potential for a tick-above average). That repertoire isn’t exactly sexy, and coupled with the injury situation he’s not really grabbing a lot of attention.

Let’s take a look at his line in Lo-A (important to note that it is a big adjustment for a high-school draftee to debut in full-season ball, so any kind of success is particularly impressive given the mix of players he’ll face): 53.3 IP, 50 H, 14 BB, 41 K, 45% GB, 3.58 FIP, .298 BABIP. None of these numbers are particularly remarkable, slighting perhaps the 14 BB (6.3% BB rate) though he’ll have to have good control since he won’t miss bats at an elite level at the upper levels, in my estimation. The strikeout rate is not strong but I think you have to lend some cushion to the fact that he was dealing with an arm injury, perhaps for most of his 2009 campaign, and that may have effected his ability to throw all his pitches exactly as he would have liked. Despite the low average on balls in play, DeVall still allowed nearly as many hits as innings pitched. His tendencies are trending in the flyball direction though it’s too soon to tell and he is at way too low of a level to really trust the data.

Scouts like his pitchability and definitely think he’s a strong candidate to be useful in some capacity at the major league level, though no one is truly enamored with his ceiling (I think this is a somewhat foolish notion since it’s hard to really project development that much going forward). That said, his body doesn’t exactly allow you to dream on potential growth like it does for Spruill, so adding 2-3 MPH in velocity is unlikely. He’s kind of, well, short and chunky. By all scouting reports I can find, he has good mechanics, though the only video I’ve seen is him talking at the end of an instructional video for a camp that his family owns and runs.

In the end, DeVall is interesting but unremarkable. There are a lot of prospects like DeVall in a draft though few have the combination of stuff (at least average and probably a tick above) and advancement that DeVall has. His evaluation largely depends on his injury situation but I think he’ll move quickly whenever he does pitch.

Scott Elbert — LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers DOB 8/13/85
2009 Performance:
AA: 62.1 IP, 59 H, 30 BB, 87 K, .370 BABIP, 40% GB, 3.04 FIP
AAA: 33.2 IP, 34 H, 14 BB, 38 K, .356 BABIP, 59% GB, 3.42 FIP
MLB: 19.2 IP, 19 H, 7 BB, 21 K, .300 BABIP, 47% GB, 4.64 FIP

As I mentioned I would do, I wanted to update you on each of my 21 or so draft picks in my draft for my sim dynasty league. I was slated to have a late pick in the second round, but as a result of my draft board evaporating (Chad Jenkins going was basically my last straw) I agreed to ship my 43rd overall pick, along with 2008 third rounder Dennis Raben, for LHP Scott Elbert. I actually entertained an opportunity to acquire Elbert for #19 overall earlier in the draft, but wound up finding the opportunity to move up for Tanner Scheppers more intriguing.

Elbert is a difficult prospect to judge. He’s had no shortage of injuries and he’s with a team that is very comfortable using their top prospects in relief (see Chad Billingsley for awhile and James McDonald currently) so his value is certainly tied to whether or not he has the opportunity to grab the fifth starter slot going into 2010. Even if he does, it doesn’t mean much, since James McDonald broke camp as the starter last year and quickly lost his spot after four starts.

With that, let’s take a look at Elbert’s 2009 performance, which we can basically divide into two instances. He was strictly a reliever in the majors, and strictly a starter in the minors. What should stand out at both levels is that his control is not exactly where it should be. His walk rates were 10.9%, 9.5% and 8.4% across three levels, and that’s a little bit higher than you’d like to see. His groundball rate is all over the place, at 40%, 57% and then 49%, so it’s hard to say where he lies tendency wise. What remains constant, however, and what I have the most interest in, is his strikeout rate. He fanned 23.3% out of the bullpen in MLB, and perhaps more impressively, 31 and 25%, respectively, in his minor league stint. While he might be “effectively wild,” it’s clear that Elbert can miss bats at any level.

A few concerns with Elbert, though: if he can’t throw strikes somewhere, he really doesn’t have a fit on a major league roster and his ability to miss bats will be under appreciated. There is also a pronounced difference in his splits v L and v R, as in the majors he posted an .862 OPS against v R and a .698 OPS against v L, and the numbers were similarly skewed in the minors. He’ll have to demonstrate an ability to get righties out in the majors in order to succeed long-term. In general, though, Elbert’s a guy that I like because worst case, he’s probably a really effective LOOGY, and best case, he’s a front of the rotation starter who misses bats and controls the game.

As most of you folks know, I’m in a dynasty league (and have been for the past three or four years) and we’re at our amateur draft phase. I held the nineteenth overall pick and traded up to the fourteenth overall pick to select RHP Tanner Scheppers of Fresno State/Texas. While the draft is not strictly amateurs (Daniel Hudson went third overall and Thomas Neal and Alex Avila were worth considering from the non-2009 draft pool), this particular draft is generally regarded as a poor one. The players that went before Scheppers went in this order, 1-13: Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, Daniel Hudson, Jacob Turner, Aaron Crow, Grant Green, Donavan Tate, Tyler Matzek, Michael Trout, Mike Leake, Zach Wheeler, Jiovanni Mier and Alex White.

Now, I realize you’re not reading my blog for my draft recap, but I must say that I’m fairly surprised at the placements of Michael Trout (very high initial BABIP, an interesting but not overwhelming set of tools) and Jiovanni Mier (very good defender but I have questions about the bat), so I was expecting Scheppers to be off the board, at the latest, at 12. Once I saw that both Alex White and Tanner Scheppers (both in my top tier behind the Strasburg and Ackley tiers, and ahead of Trout, Wheeler, Mier, Matzek and Tate), I made the decision to move up to fourteen and take whoever would fall between White and Scheppers, though Scheppers was my preference.

It should be noted that in general I’m risk adverse, but this draft was so lacking in upside that I saw Scheppers as the last available potential front-end option, so I jumped at it. I am concerned with the way that he ends his release (you’ll see an excellent article here detailing my very concern) as well as the shoulder injury that caused him to fall to the second round, twice, in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. I will also note that while I don’t believe Scheppers has anything near a maximum effort delivery (in fact, he has relatively clean mechanics beyond the strange rocking motion and the shortening of his follow through, as you’ll see here), I’m not sure he has a starting pitcher’s mentality given the way he seemed to dial it up in the AFL all-star game earlier this offseason.

Scheppers has a dominant fastball, sitting between 97-99 as a reliever and between 92-95 as a starter. He also has legitimate secondary offerings including a lockdown curveball, so I definitely think he could start given health and the right demeanor. I’m certainly drafting him with that hope. With that said, he’s also over 22 and notes that one of his major concerns is with command, so it’s very possible Texas could fast-track him to the bullpen as early as the middle to end of next season. In fact, given how they handled Derek Holland and Neftali Perez, I’d honestly be surprised if he didn’t spend some time, at least, in the bullpen, before getting an opportunity to start.

Scheppers isn’t without a need to refine his efforts, however, as he walked nearly 11% of the batters he faced in his last year at Fresno State. With that said, he also was relatively new to pitching, having pitched a total of 20 innings in high school and just 15 as a freshman at Fresno. We have no minor league data on him since he signed very late, but he was impressive in the AFL and I also really like his experience in the independent leagues, where he was told to have learned how patient professional hitters are. He also mentioned that he was more aware of the benefits of pitching inside in a number of interviews.

I think Scheppers most likely destination is an elite, flamethrowing reliever in the Joba Chamberlain mode, and in fact, he may struggle similarly as a starter for the same reasons Joba has. I think if you watch the video I provided it’ll be easy to see how easy his velocity is, and since you can largely attribute velocity with success, I think this is a great time to bet on the moon with Scheppers. We’ll see how he progresses next year.