BaseBallstotheWall

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Jiwan James is one of the toolsiest, riskiest and most interesting prospects in minor league baseball today. Let’s take a look at his career line:

2009 A (SS) 134 PA .264/.336/.372 11 BB 22 K 8 XBH 7 SB 4 CS .319 BABIP
2010 Lo-A 505 PA .278/.325/.372 28 BB 103 K 32 XBH 28 SB 17 CS .355 BABIP

These are admittedly unremarkable numbers, and there is a decline between 2009 and 2010 walk rate, and a pretty unimpressive stolen base ratio. James is a clear case of tools over performance but he’s caught my attention because of his backstory, which is essentially that he wasn’t a full time hitter until the 2009 season, instead being drafted as a pitcher. He signed for an overslot bonus of $150,000 in 2007, but flopped as a pitcher due to command issues and arm troubles. He debuted in late 2009 in the New York Penn League and wowed scouts with his raw toolset. Indeed, when considering his lack of hitting experience, his 7.8% walk rate and 16.6% strikeout rate in 2009 was nothing short of very impressive.

As I mentioned, his 2010 ratios have taken a bit of a dip on that front, as his current walk rate is slightly below 6% (5.8%) and his strikeout rate is slightly over 20% (20.5%). Still, neither of these numbers are unacceptable and we can likely expect James to gain a better understanding of the strike zone as he matures as a hitter. According to BP’s Kevin Goldstein, James speed is a 70 on the 20-80 scale, and he projects to have at least average power, with some projecting it to be a plus. He’s a strong defender with a super arm, which can obviously be traced back to his days on the mound. He also projects to hit for average as he matures, which is obviously something we’re starting to see already.

There are very few minor league players that can sniff James upside, and if you look deep at his 2009 and 2010 numbers, it’s easy to see that 2011 is a strong breakout possibility for him. We’re not talking top 100 prospect level for James, we’re talking about top 5 or 10 prospect level if he hits his ceiling, which is massive.

As per a reader request, let’s take a look at the Washington Nationals system. I’m not going to spend any time talking about Stephen Strasburg, because, frankly, I’m tired of talking and reading about him. I will say that Project Prospect offers an interesting discussion about his mechanics, essentially claiming that they expect him to get injured in his first few years as a professional. I share their belief about his poor mechanics but won’t make that kind of claim given how uncertain analyzing mechanics really is.

5 Nationals to Watch:

1. CA Derek Norris – Norris has everything you could want in a hitter, with a .286/.413/.513 line in Lo-A at 20. He has injured his hamate bone so you shouldn’t see much in terms of power production going forward next season, but it should return as he returns to full health. He draws walks (nearly 17%), avoids strikeouts for such a youngster (21.5% K) and makes solid contact (20% LD) with a corresponding BABIP (.342). His IsoP was .227, showing remarkably developed power for someone his age. So why isn’t Derek Norris a top 25 prospect? Well, he’s just not likely to stick at C long-term. That said, his bat should play just about anywhere.

2. RP Drew Storen –It’s never really a great sign when a RP is this high in your system, particularly one getting more hype than he ultimately deserves at this point in his career. The 10th overall pick in the 2009 Draft out of Stanford, Storen signed quickly for slot money and shot through the minor leagues. He has a power repertoire though there are some that thought a change-up existed enough for Storen to give starting a shot, though the Nationals ultimately did not agree and would like the immediate impact of a reliever. Storen’s K numbers look great, but the majority of his success happened at Lo-A, when he struckout 44% of the batters he faced. In Hi-A and AA, Storen struckout just 1 more batter than inning pitched, which is nice, but far from dominant. He’s not Daniel Bard out there, so the Nationals shouldn’t be expecting him to light up radar guns or completely shut down opposing lineups with missing bats. Still a very nice prospect, but there’s reason to think he’s much closer to the next Chad Cordero than the next Jonathan Papelbon. Not enough data on Storen to suggest much else, but where are the grounders? He never eclipsed 38% at any of the three levels he pitched at, and across those three levels probably gives us enough of a sample to include he may never do so. That could make him prone to the long ball in tight situations in the bigs, something I’d rather avoid if I could.

3. Chris Marrero –To be completely honest, Chris Marrero may just be my favorite hitter in the Nationals system. He’s had some health problems in the past and plays a position where he really needs to be elite to justify elite prospect rankings, but he’s got a strong pedigree and was highly regarded coming out of the draft. He walked in 9% of his plate appearances at Hi-A, and struckout in just 20% of them. He posted a .177 IsoP and reached base 36% of the time. He did have a bloated .348 BABIP considering his 15% LD. You’d like to see that go up a bit. I’ve read some information that Marrero is seeing some time in the outfield which will help his cause. I really like how calm his approach is at the plate, and I’ve seen multiple videos of him going the other way with power. He’s actually a little bit small in stature so his fit looks like it would work in the outfield. His swing is level and his bat spends a lot of time in the zone. You can see in this video a bit more about his approach.

4. Danny Espinosa –Espinosa is a SS prospect that’s gotten a lot of helium of late because of a solid set of tools combined with solid performance. He should stick in the middle infield, and he posted a 13% BB rate with a 22% K Rate at Hi-A last season as a 22-year old. He sported a .196 IsoP with a .326 BABIP. He also stole 29 bases. What don’t I like? You can start with the 13% Line Drive Rate and the near 50% GB Rate. He’s just not going to project for much power as he advances in the upper minors with that percentage, though he’ll still have use in the middle infield if he can keep up this line with less power. Color me pleased that he’s left-handed, though. He’s got a really quick bat, but I’m not sure it stays in the heart of the zone for as long as I’d like. I will be interested to see how his groundball rates look going forward, because that will either hold him back or catapult him forward.

5. Michael Burgess –Burgess has really fallen from the prospect radar but there’s nothing not to like from a tools perspective with Burgess, and you’re not completely betting on a wildcard with him since he’s proven it in the past. Burgess draws walks (10% last season, impressive coming from a raw highschooler with power) and controlled the strikezone reasonably well compared to the past (24% K rate, down from 30% in 2008). He sported a .175 IsoP, down from last year’s .221 but still showing plenty of promise. He hit just .235 but sported just a .288 BABIP with a 14% LD. Now the BABIP is low but he’ll need to work on making solid contact if he wants to get his average up to even .260 or so. I just think there is more here than bad numbers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back on prospect radars next year. If he hits .260 next season, I think you could be looking at a .260/.350/.500 type line from him. The power is definitely there and he has quite a way of extending himself. He’s short and stocky and extremely powerful, but it’s easy to see a long and loopy swing holding back the contact he needs to make to have success at higher levels. If he can get that in order the potential is there. Think Matt Lawton with less contact skills and more power as Burgess’ peak.

Sleepers: Aaron Thompson and Destin Hood. Thompson was acquired from the Marlins for Nick Johnson last year, and he’s an intriguing lefty who misses some bats and gets grounders. I think he stands a better than average chance of being a useful rotation option in the near future. For Hood, an athletic outfielder drafted out of high school in Alabama with a football build, he’s shown a lot of rawness but some skills in recognizing pitches and he’s a legit five-tooler who is a long, long way away.

——

Bonus Roster for Nationals in Two Years:
CA Jesus Flores
1B Derek Norris
2B Danny Espinosa
SS Ian Desmond
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Chris Marrero
CF Nyjer Morgan (elite defender with some offensive skills)
RF Elijah Dukes

Don’t think the Nats will sign Willingham long-term, and I do like Dukes skillset.

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Jordan Zimmerman
SP Ross Detwiler
SP Garrett Mock
SP Aaron Thompson

Like Mock a lot, think Strasburg and Zimmerman could be an interesting 1-2 punch.

No matter which prospect list you look at, Desmond Jennings is a virtually unanimous choice inside the Top 10. Indeed, in Project Prospect’s very interesting Digital Prospect Guide, the only official Top 10 publication currently out there, Jennings is on it (as Adam has noted, he is actually 2nd on Project Prospect’s top 10 list). So why is he not in my top 10? Well, let’s take a look at the statistics first:

Desmond Jennings
2009 OBP LD% BABIP BB% K% IsoP SB
AA .393 17% .347 14% 11% .170 37
AAA .419 16% .354 11% 11.8% .166 15

From a statistical perspective, it’s hard to have much of a beef with Desmond’s numbers. He generally walks more than he strikes out, he’s had a luck neutral performance, as his stolen bases should illustrate, he has a respectable Isolated Power for someone who bases much of his all-around game around speed, and he looks like a quintessential lead-off hitter. It should be clear by that LD% that he is not, by any means, a slap hitter.

This is an interesting case of actually preferring ceiling to floor a bit, as I’m not a huge believer in Jennings developing 25-30 HR power as he gets a bit older, though I think a lot of people might. If he doesn’t, I question how much better he is than players like Tyson Gillies and Michael Brantley, who clearly will not develop any power (unlike Jennings, who might), but I’ve felt it necessary to include that caveat in my ranking. I also don’t think he is near the natural hitter of Dustin Ackley, who may also play 2B.

Jennings is a gold-glove caliber CF if healthy, though I am understandably concerned with his long list of injury history. This was Jennings first healthy year, well, ever. He may very well break down. I will admit that it is likely that Jennings is a much safer bet to have a good, solid career than Michael Stanton, Domonic Brown and Martin Perez, who are the three people I can see sliding behind Jennings to move him into the top 10, but I think their chances for upside are so much better than Jennings that I’m trying to be aggressive with their rankings. I think if Jennings had a clean bill of health, I may run a different course and put him as high as ninth, but I think it’s a mistake to ignore it considering how close these folks are.

Jennings has an easy swing and his bat spends a lot of time in the zone, so it’s not impossible to see some power coming along. As you’ll see here, there is no doubt that Jennings is capable of generating power but he hasn’t, yet, at least at the level of Stanton. You’re putting a lot of pressure on his other tools if he cannot do that. I’m taking a “show me” approach with that power, and perhaps I’m unfairly hurting him because he becomes similar to other minimal power CF types than some of the other prospects around him. It’s worth noting that his .170 IsoP is far more than what Gillies and Brantley have ever done, so there is certainly a difference. How much difference will it ultimately be, though?

In light of the fairly glaring omissions I believe I had from my first effort at the top 100, I’d like to offer a revised version, one that, you know, actually includes one of the better prospects in baseball (Neftali Feliz) and also one that includes Aroldis Chapman.

1. Jason Heyward
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Brian Matusz
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Buster Posey
6. Carlos Santana
7. Justin Smoak
8. Michael Stanton
9. Jesus Montero
10. Martin Perez
11. Domonic Brown
12. Dustin Ackley
13. Desmond Jennings
14. Pedro Alvarez
15. Kyle Drabek
16. Logan Morrison
17. Madison Bumgarner
18. Matt Moore
19. Michael Taylor
20. Christian Friedrich
21. Brett Wallace
22. Jeremy Hellickson
23. Ryan Westmoreland
24. Aroldis Chapman
25. Chris Carter
26. Mike Montgomery
27. Aaron Hicks
28. Chris Withrow
29. Casey Kelly
30. Wade Davis
31. Alcides Escobar
32. Simon Castro
33. Tanner Scheppers
34. Josh Bell
35. Jarrod Parker
36. Devaris Strange-Gordon
37. Tim Beckham
38. Casey Crosby
39. Yonder Alonso
40. Daniel Hudson
41. Matt Dominguez
42. Mike Moustakas
43. Lonnie Chisenhall
44. Fernando Martinez
45. Eric Hosmer
46. Jacob Turner
47. Jenrry Mejia
48. Josh Reddick
49. Brett Lawrie
50. Starlin Castro
51. Julio Teheran
52. Michel Ynoa
53. Jaff Decker
54. Nick Weglarz
55. Hector Rondon
56. Freddie Freeman
57. Jhoulys Chacin
58. Thomas Neal
59. Arodys Vizcaino
60. Zach Britton
61. Jake Arrieta
62. Jordan Lyles
63. Hank Conger
64. Derek Norris
65. Scott Elbert
66. Todd Frazier
67. Aaron Crow
68. Trevor Reckling
69. Zach Stewart
70. Donavan Tate
71. Carlos Carrasco
72. Ethan Martin
73. Joshua Vitters
74. Reid Brignac
75. Hak-Ju Lee
76. Tyler Matzek
77. Ryan Kalish
78. Jon Niese
79. Michael Saunders
80. Jay Jackson
81. Tim Melville
82. Brad Lincoln
83. Alexander Colome
84. Fabio Martinez-Mesa
85. Phillippe Aumont
86. Mike Leake
87. Mike Trout
88. Mat Gamel
89. Ike Davis
90. Tyler Flowers
91. Alex Avila
92. Josa Tabata
93. Tony Sanchez
94. Brett Jackson
95. Travis D’Arnaud
96. Danny Duffy
97. Jemile Weeks
98. Wil Myers
99. Randall Delgado
100. Jurickson Profar

Obviously I understand that the split between a top 100 prospect and a failed top 5 pick is considerable, but after reading John Sickels post today about the Pirates Top 20 Prospects, it’s hard not to wrestle with this. In case you don’t want to click the link, Brad Lincoln was ranked as a C+ (interesting, but a fair amount of warts or very far away, by Sickels’ general rankings), behind such luminaries as Zach Von Rosenberg (2009 MIDDLE ROUND DRAFT PICK) and Tim Alderson (he of the Moskosian 11% K rate at AA).

A little track record on Lincoln, he was the #4 overall pick in the 2006 draft (behind Greg Reynolds, Luke Hochevar and Evan Longoria and ahead of Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow and Andrew Miller), and was known as much for being a hitter as for being a pitcher. Coming out, he had a fastball that could reach the mid-90’s and a hard curveball, and like most pitchers, the development of his change would determine how well he would do going forward. Flash forward a couple of years and Lincoln missed a year and a half with Tommy John Surgery. He began 2009 at AA, and looked really good.

Over 75 innings at AA last season, Lincoln allowed 63 hits while walking 18 and striking out 65. His FIP was just 2.91, though his groundball percentage fell below 50% (45%) and he was a bit lucky with a .285 BABIP. Even still, he was dominant. He was able to miss bats (21.2% clip) and avoid walks (6.1%). Because of his age and injury status, he was quickly accelerated to AAA to see if he could handle the transition, with largely mixed results. In 61.1 innings at AAA Indianapolis, Lincoln allowed 72 hits while issuing 10 free passes and striking out 42 batters. You’ll see that both his strikeout rate and his walk rate dropped (16.1% and 3.9%, respectively) and that his luck got considerably worse (.342 BABIP). Even still, despite some struggles, he sported a Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.81, which remains very solid.

Lincoln’s statistical profile reminds me a bit of Brandon Morrow with better control. He pounds the strikezone with really good, hard offerings, but often times gets himself in trouble by getting too much of the plate. His numbers, including a 35% groundball rate at AAA, indicate he’s probably getting his fastball up a bit too much and people are really taking advantage of it. He’ll have to work on that in the pros, but at least he can find the strikezone. How high he soars with Pittsburgh will largely depend on the continued development of a third pitch and an ability to avoid the extra base hit, which has long been the big concern of mine with him. What we do know is that he has the stuff to miss bats even if he is hittable (I think his potential lies somewhere between 16 and 21% K rate) and he’s not going to issue a free pass, either.

Either way, there is no doubt in my mind Sickels has made a mistake underestimating Lincoln. I expect a long career of #3-#4 caliber innings with enough upside that he could improve on that. Remember, he’s still relatively new to full time pitching.

Max Ramirez — CA/DH/1B, Texas Rangers/Boston Red Sox DOB 10/11/84 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AAA: .234/.324/.336 35 BB/85 K, .321 BABIP, 20% LD, .102 IsoP

Editor’s Note: With the pending Mike Lowell/Max Ramirez trade, I’ve decided not to choose which team he’ll be playing for next year, but I sure hope it’s the Red Sox

Max Ramirez is a polarizing figure in the prospect community and is a difficult guy to figure out for a couple of reasons, starting with concerns about his position. He came up as a third-baseman before converting to catcher. He’s been traded now three times in his career, so someone has a problem with him. That problem, largely, is that he’s probably not a catcher. He’s relatively short, not exactly in good shape and doesn’t play catcher like a catcher should. He’s probably a below average 3B if he goes back to the position, which relegates him to a DH/1B role. His bat will have to carry him.

That brings us to his bat: it’s pretty good, but it was pretty bad last season. Despite sporting a reasonable .321 BABIP (probably a little low given the 20% line drive rate), he still hit just .236 and OPS’d less than .700, despite being more than age appropriate for the AAA level. Now, he was injured (particularly, there were concerns about his wrists and knees), but there is also definite concern about his weight being a problem. He continued to walk at a good rate (nearly 12%, though that is lower than his performance in the lower minors, it is still more than acceptable) but he also struck out nearly 27% of the time, which looks about on par with his upper minors performance. It seems like he’s hitting more and more balls for flyouts, possibly in an effort to gain more power, but it seems to be taking away from his ability to make contact and to hit for average. I’m not sure if this is something Texas is preaching to him or not.

Historically, the thing that concerns me most with Ramirez is that he seems to have benefited from a career of high BABIPs. He has had 5 instances in his minor league career with a BABIP above .357, which is pretty clearly luck or extreme line drive ability unless you’re super speedy, which Ramirez certainly is not. His line drive percentages have been good for his career, but not THAT good (at or approaching 20% on average). Time will tell whether he was extraordinarily lucky or if he really is that good at making good contact.

On a speculative note, I can see why the Red Sox like Ramirez. I doubt they’re too concerned that he catches, but I think they like the flexibility he’d bring as a reserve in the role. I think they’re more interested in the bat, where they can preach to him to stop trying to hit home runs and to continue to work on line drives and solid contact, which should yield improved performance. He’s not going to be a .300 hitter with that K rate, though I do think it may drop with a different approach. I like his walk rate and I think he could be a .280/.370/.450 type of hitter as he matures, but he needs a chance to play.

Wade Miley — LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks DOB 11/13/86
2009 Performance:
Lo-A: 113.2 IP, 127 H, 29 BB, 91 K, .347 BABIP, 3.77 FIP, 57% GB, 5% HR/AIR
Hi-A: 15 IP, 18 H, 4 BB, 11 K, .360 BABIP, 3.11 FIP, 52% GB, 0% HR/AIR

Selected in the supplemental first round (2008) by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Southeastern Louisiana University, Miley appeared to be an interesting cross between projection and performance. He wasn’t exactly performing at a mecca of college baseball, but he was doing the one thing that translates to the minors and majors well: striking batters out.

From a scouting perspective, my major concern with Miley was that he seemed to have questionable command of his pitches at times, and also, that he threw across his body, which is a recipe for pitching injury everywhere. Both Baseball-Intellect and Saberscouting do an excellent job of breaking down the pros and cons to Miley’s approach to pitching. Honestly, I could care less if Miley has a “bulldog” approach to pitching, as both of these websites attest to, but what I do like is that his premier pitch is a breaking ball. Having an elite curve/slider will make Miley’s fastball look better, though these sites are correct in noting that Miley’s future success will depend on the development of his change-up, as you need three pitches to be a successful starter.

As for throwing across his body, it’s one of those things that might just NEED to be the case with Miley. I remember the Red Sox talking about Craig Hansen doing this and trying to alter him, and they’ve all but ruined his career. We saw a similar problem when Jonathan Papelbon adjusted his throwing motion to better compensate for some lingering shoulder soreness. As saberscouting suggests, Miley is able to use his across the body motion to throw off-speed pitches on the outside corner to right-handed batters, which gives him a huge opportunity of maintaining even splits and not having to face a lineup stacked with righties constantly. I have an inherent bias against left-handed pitchers for that very fact.

Because Miley doesn’t have an elite fastball (I’ve heard anywhere between 85-88 and 91-94, so it’s probably in between those two numbers) he still has to rely on command and location to get batters out. If he was walking 8-10% of the batters he was facing at Lo-A, I’d be very concerned about his future status, but given the 6.2% walk rate, I think he has a chance to be successful if he can maintain that. He has great groundball tendencies (57 and 52%, respectively, in his stints this year) and was clearly unlucky based on the BABIP allowed and in looking at his FIP (both times his FIP was under 4 while his ERA was over 4). That is really the nature of being a groundball pitcher in the minors as you’re just not going to get a ton of help from your fielders.

I am concerned about his strikeout rate and his homerun rate. Facing batters that don’t have a lot of power at Lo-A and giving up 8 homers as a groundball pitcher is a concerning number. We’ll see what happens as he moves up but it might illustrate an underlying problem with his command that the statistics are simply not providing us. Additionally, with a knock out curveball, and at his age (22 all year), it would have been nice to see Miley be a bit more dominant. He was good, but not great, and he perhaps should have been given his age and draft status.

In my estimation, Miley could go a couple of ways here (3, to be exact). He could see his K rate dwindle considerably as he faces more capable batters, but still be successful at keeping the ball on the ground and keeping batters from getting extra bases. He could see his K rate dwindle, his command problems return and flame out at Hi-A, or he could continue to miss bats at the rate he has currently and move into a top 5 system prospect type. My money is on option A, which will fasttrack him to the majors as a groundballer but will limit him to a long-relief or back-end starter position, which still has plenty of value.

Evan Anundsen — RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
DOB 5/17/88
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 131.1 IP, 103 H, 41 BB, 120 K, 2.77 FIP, .288 BABIP, 53% GB, 1% HR/Air

In the estimation of this esteemed blogger, Evan Anundsen is among the most underrated prospects in all of minor league baseball, largely because he has been labeled as a middling prospect because he does not have a blazing fastball or what scouts coin as “elite stuff.” What Anundsen does have, however, is a track record of success, strong peripherals and an organization that finds these types of prospects more often than not.

From a “stuff” perspective, first, Anundsen lives on command and advanced secondary offerings, as his fastball is merely average. He throws his fastball in just the mid-80’s, though he can potentially dial it up as high as the upper 80’s. The fastball has good sink, but you don’t see many pitchers make the majors with that level of fastball, so I suppose it’s somewhat forgivable that he didn’t make the Brewers top 10 list for BA, despite a 2.67 ERA and 120 K in 131 minor league innings last season. Anundsen has at least average, and potentially better, offerings for both his change-up and his curveball, and he has excellent control.

Folks that don’t believe in Anundsen will note that he has a hard time getting batters out on his own (despite the fact that he has a more than respectable 22.7% K rate at Hi-A) or that he’s just taking advantage of hitters who can’t hit secondary pitches and is more advanced than them (despite being just 21 at the end of the season at Hi-A, which is a bit young for the level and at most age neutral). Despite the fact that the scouting report suggests he has to keep the ball in play, his Fielding Independent Pitching metric had him at 2.77 (only .10 points higher than his actual ERA, which suggests very little fielding help in producing his gaudy ERA number). There are a FEW signs of some luck, including a .288 BABIP (he should be somewhere between .305 and .330, though there is some argument above pitchers being able to reduce line drives and some evidence that there is more variance between those standardized numbers) and a 1% HR/Air ratio, which means only 1% of the flyballs he allowed in Hi-A went for homers, which is certainly low.

Even neutralizing Anundsen’s splits for HR/Air and BABIP, we’re still looking at a 3.40 FIP, which is clearly a top 10 prospect resume. There have been numerous studies that suggest that you can generally project a pitcher based almost solely on velocity, but I just think that’s too limited. Now Anundsen may flame out at AA and prove that he’s just another guy beating up on guys who can’t hit off-speed pitches, but I’m a believer.

In my estimation, the Orioles are a team on the rise, with a very valuable OF trio of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and the finally developing Felix Pie (along with Nolan Reimold at DH), along with the underrated Brian Roberts and supergod Matt Wieters behind the plate. With Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and David Hernandez moving to the majors last year, and Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe and Zach Britton close, this team is definitely improving rapidly. Some shrewd free-agent signings and a premium impact bat for the middle of the order will surely help the team.

1. Brian Matusz
2. Josh Bell
3. Zach Britton
4. Jake Arrieta
5. Brandon Erbe
6. Matt Hobgood
7. Steven Johnson
8. Brandon Snyder
9. Troy Patton
10. Chorye Spoone
HM: Mycal Givens, Kam Mickolio, Caleb Joseph

As a sizable Red Sox homer, I see no better way to kickoff my list of top 10 prospects than with the Red Sox. The system is DEFINITELY down from past years but I think there is a lot of talent at the lower levels which will help bring things back within the next few years. The Red Sox are one of the best in baseball at using their later picks to sign overslot players (as we saw this year with David Renfroe, Brandon Jacobs and Kendal Volz), and generate a fair amount of prospects that way as a result.

Anyhow, without further ado, here are your top 10 Red Sox prospects (Anyone listed in a top 100 write-up will have their information pasted into the new post):

1. Casey Kelly – RHP, Boston Red Sox DOB 10/4/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A 48.1 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 39 K, 2.43 FIP, 55% GB
Hi-A: 46.2 IP, 33 H, 7 BB, 35 K, 3.46 FIP, 51% GB
Casey Kelly is a personal favorite of mine, largely because I’m also a Red Sox fan. He signed for a huge bonus as a late first round pick last year, and he signed on the condition that he be given a shot to stick at SS. He has not hit to this point at the position, so I will not list his hitting stats. It’s clear to me that his future is on the mound, and I think when he dedicates all of his attention to that, his numbers are going to skyrocket. Already we can see great control of the strike zone, strong ground ball tendencies and at least some ability to miss bats, something that I think will improve as he dedicates complete time to the position. Still, he’s fanning over 20% and walking less than 5%, a ratio you’ll always take. He’s also reached Hi-A despite the fact that he won’t turn 20 until after the season ends. He was mighty lucky, with an average on balls in play of just .237, though his stuff may be so strong that he’s hitting the poor part of the bat on overmatched hitters quite a bit. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball right now, though scouts think he’ll add velocity as time goes on. His secondary stuff is very advanced for his age, and his mechanics are smooth. You’re looking at a front-end starting candidate with a complete repertoire and few question marks once he moves to pitching full time. I would be very surprised he is not a top ten prospect during his first year as a full-time pitcher, which hopefully comes next year.

2. Josh Reddick — OF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 2/19/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .277/.352/.520, .320 BABIP, .243 IsoP
AAA: .127/.190/.183, .155 BABIP, .056 IsoP (79 PA)
MLB: .182/.229/.394, .227 BABIP, .212 IsoP (35 PA)
Reddick was rushed to the majors because of injuries, but I was just very impressed by the way the ball jumps right off of his bat. He’s had kind of a difficult season this year because he’s been asked to become more patient (10.5% walk rate at AA is 1.4% higher than any other year, but 21.6% strikeout rate is 2.7% higher than any other season), but he’s still produced a very nice Isolated Power number in a luck neutral situation. He’s a plus defender at the corners and an average defender in center, and he should be poised to attempt AAA next year. He’s never going to be a walk machine but it does seem like the Sox have effectively pushed him away from the Francoeurian path that he was headed down in 2007. I really like his chances of being an effective regular for Boston by the start of 2010, but his current year numbers preclude a higher grade.

3. Lars Anderson — 1B, Boston Red Sox DOB 9/25/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
AA: .233/.328/.345 63 BB-114 K .112 IsoP 13% LD
What an absolutely disastrous season for Lars Anderson, as his season supports pretty much the worst possible scenario of the red flags that were in view last season. Anderson reminds me a bit of Max Ramirez in the sense that he’s had a very high average on balls in play throughout his career (.365, .440, .367, .435) without the speed or line-drive percentage to support it. His average on balls in play this year was low at .293, but not unreasonably low. His walk rate dropped 5.3% at the same level in 2009, though he also cut his strikeout rate by 4.1%. His IsoP fell by .98 from 2008 at AA and his LD% dropped 6%, though the line-drive numbers aren’t terribly reliable in the minors. With that said, is this the true Lars Anderson? I don’t think so, personally. He was 21 all season at AA, so he was young for the level, and he was extremely highly regarded from a scouting perspective entering the season. There is a bit of a concern that he’s not very athletic, as I believe a scout referred to him as a 21 year-old Mark Grace (no athletic compliment)

4. Ryan Westmoreland — OF/COF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 4/27/90 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
Lo-A: .294/.401/.486, 38 BB-49 K, .188 IsoP, .353 BABIP, 17% LD
Westmoreland is easily the prospect with the most “upside” in the Red Sox system, as he has the defensive tools to play centerfield, the power potential to be a middle of the order threat and the plate discipline to fit with the Red Sox style. After getting a $2,000,000 signing bonus from the Red Sox in 2008, Westmoreland sat out the year due to injury and may not have been fully healthy until midway through this season. He reminds me a bit of Mike Trout from the 2009 draft, as he combines good contact ability (low strikeout rate and good line drive rate for a rookie) with developing doubles power that should materialize as time moves on. He was a bit lucky this year with the average on balls in play but it’s frankly not hard to imagine it being consistently that high given his raw speed and measurables. Westmoreland reminds me of someone who could be a Nick Markakis type as things develop (.300/.400/.500, plus defense) and I think the Red Sox would be hard-pressed to find another prospect with this type of ceiling in their system.

5. Ryan Kalish — CF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 3/28/88 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A (137 PA): .307/.433/.509, 25 BB-20 K, 12% LD%, .337 BABIP, .202 IsoP
AA: .271/.341/.440, 42 BB-87 K, 15% LD%, .320 BABIP, .169 IsoP
Kalish is a really interesting player in the Red Sox farm system because he doesn’t really project as a plus-plus power or speed threat. He has the range to handle center and may have to to be a completely viable asset depending on how well his power develops. He makes good decisions on the basepaths and really gets the most out of his considerable toolbox. It was clear to the Red Sox that he had mastered Hi-A and did at least average, perhaps better, as a 21 year-old in AA. His performance was luck neutral and even while being very young for the level, he kept his strikeout rate under 20% and his walk rate was nearly 10%, as well. His IsoP dipped from .202 to .169 in AA, which means he’ll have to be able to handle center in the bigs or develop a bit more power. The Red Sox have been outspoken about the value of on-base percentage over slugging percentage, and I agree, but I still don’t know if he projects to do enough power wise to justify his good OBP skills. There have also been some reports that he’s not hitting enough line drives, and is instead hitting a lot of grounders. He improved his percentage at AA but it is still low, and he’ll need to work on producing more line drives as they fall for hits the majority of the time. If he can stay healthy and continue to work on his game, I expect he’ll take over in CF in 2011 or 2012 when Ellsbury becomes a bit more expensive. He may also get a crack as a 4th OF as a September call-up or at the beginning of 2011.
6. Anthony Rizzo
7. Michael Bowden
8. Junichi Tazawa
9. Alex Wilson
10. Stolmy Pimental
HM: Stephen Fife, Luis Exposito, Che-Hsuan Lin