BaseBallstotheWall

As per a reader request, let’s take a look at the Washington Nationals system. I’m not going to spend any time talking about Stephen Strasburg, because, frankly, I’m tired of talking and reading about him. I will say that Project Prospect offers an interesting discussion about his mechanics, essentially claiming that they expect him to get injured in his first few years as a professional. I share their belief about his poor mechanics but won’t make that kind of claim given how uncertain analyzing mechanics really is.

5 Nationals to Watch:

1. CA Derek Norris – Norris has everything you could want in a hitter, with a .286/.413/.513 line in Lo-A at 20. He has injured his hamate bone so you shouldn’t see much in terms of power production going forward next season, but it should return as he returns to full health. He draws walks (nearly 17%), avoids strikeouts for such a youngster (21.5% K) and makes solid contact (20% LD) with a corresponding BABIP (.342). His IsoP was .227, showing remarkably developed power for someone his age. So why isn’t Derek Norris a top 25 prospect? Well, he’s just not likely to stick at C long-term. That said, his bat should play just about anywhere.

2. RP Drew Storen –It’s never really a great sign when a RP is this high in your system, particularly one getting more hype than he ultimately deserves at this point in his career. The 10th overall pick in the 2009 Draft out of Stanford, Storen signed quickly for slot money and shot through the minor leagues. He has a power repertoire though there are some that thought a change-up existed enough for Storen to give starting a shot, though the Nationals ultimately did not agree and would like the immediate impact of a reliever. Storen’s K numbers look great, but the majority of his success happened at Lo-A, when he struckout 44% of the batters he faced. In Hi-A and AA, Storen struckout just 1 more batter than inning pitched, which is nice, but far from dominant. He’s not Daniel Bard out there, so the Nationals shouldn’t be expecting him to light up radar guns or completely shut down opposing lineups with missing bats. Still a very nice prospect, but there’s reason to think he’s much closer to the next Chad Cordero than the next Jonathan Papelbon. Not enough data on Storen to suggest much else, but where are the grounders? He never eclipsed 38% at any of the three levels he pitched at, and across those three levels probably gives us enough of a sample to include he may never do so. That could make him prone to the long ball in tight situations in the bigs, something I’d rather avoid if I could.

3. Chris Marrero –To be completely honest, Chris Marrero may just be my favorite hitter in the Nationals system. He’s had some health problems in the past and plays a position where he really needs to be elite to justify elite prospect rankings, but he’s got a strong pedigree and was highly regarded coming out of the draft. He walked in 9% of his plate appearances at Hi-A, and struckout in just 20% of them. He posted a .177 IsoP and reached base 36% of the time. He did have a bloated .348 BABIP considering his 15% LD. You’d like to see that go up a bit. I’ve read some information that Marrero is seeing some time in the outfield which will help his cause. I really like how calm his approach is at the plate, and I’ve seen multiple videos of him going the other way with power. He’s actually a little bit small in stature so his fit looks like it would work in the outfield. His swing is level and his bat spends a lot of time in the zone. You can see in this video a bit more about his approach.

4. Danny Espinosa –Espinosa is a SS prospect that’s gotten a lot of helium of late because of a solid set of tools combined with solid performance. He should stick in the middle infield, and he posted a 13% BB rate with a 22% K Rate at Hi-A last season as a 22-year old. He sported a .196 IsoP with a .326 BABIP. He also stole 29 bases. What don’t I like? You can start with the 13% Line Drive Rate and the near 50% GB Rate. He’s just not going to project for much power as he advances in the upper minors with that percentage, though he’ll still have use in the middle infield if he can keep up this line with less power. Color me pleased that he’s left-handed, though. He’s got a really quick bat, but I’m not sure it stays in the heart of the zone for as long as I’d like. I will be interested to see how his groundball rates look going forward, because that will either hold him back or catapult him forward.

5. Michael Burgess –Burgess has really fallen from the prospect radar but there’s nothing not to like from a tools perspective with Burgess, and you’re not completely betting on a wildcard with him since he’s proven it in the past. Burgess draws walks (10% last season, impressive coming from a raw highschooler with power) and controlled the strikezone reasonably well compared to the past (24% K rate, down from 30% in 2008). He sported a .175 IsoP, down from last year’s .221 but still showing plenty of promise. He hit just .235 but sported just a .288 BABIP with a 14% LD. Now the BABIP is low but he’ll need to work on making solid contact if he wants to get his average up to even .260 or so. I just think there is more here than bad numbers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back on prospect radars next year. If he hits .260 next season, I think you could be looking at a .260/.350/.500 type line from him. The power is definitely there and he has quite a way of extending himself. He’s short and stocky and extremely powerful, but it’s easy to see a long and loopy swing holding back the contact he needs to make to have success at higher levels. If he can get that in order the potential is there. Think Matt Lawton with less contact skills and more power as Burgess’ peak.

Sleepers: Aaron Thompson and Destin Hood. Thompson was acquired from the Marlins for Nick Johnson last year, and he’s an intriguing lefty who misses some bats and gets grounders. I think he stands a better than average chance of being a useful rotation option in the near future. For Hood, an athletic outfielder drafted out of high school in Alabama with a football build, he’s shown a lot of rawness but some skills in recognizing pitches and he’s a legit five-tooler who is a long, long way away.

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Bonus Roster for Nationals in Two Years:
CA Jesus Flores
1B Derek Norris
2B Danny Espinosa
SS Ian Desmond
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Chris Marrero
CF Nyjer Morgan (elite defender with some offensive skills)
RF Elijah Dukes

Don’t think the Nats will sign Willingham long-term, and I do like Dukes skillset.

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Jordan Zimmerman
SP Ross Detwiler
SP Garrett Mock
SP Aaron Thompson

Like Mock a lot, think Strasburg and Zimmerman could be an interesting 1-2 punch.