BaseBallstotheWall

Michael Saunders is one of my favorite players in the minors, and frankly, one of the more underappreciated ones as well. Let’s take a look at his statistical profile from last season for the start of our analysis, courtesy of first inning:

2009 Performance:
AAA 281 PA .310/.374/.544 25 BB 48 K .234 IsoP .342 BABIP 8.9% BB 17.1% K 15% LD
MLB 129 PA .221/.256/.279 06 BB 40 K .058 IsoP .329 BABIP 4.7% BB 31.0% K 15% LD

There are a couple immediate things we can glean from his overall profile that you won’t see reflected in the statistics above, so let’s start with those. Cutting his strikeout rate to 17.1% at AAA was a significant move, as his next lowest number over his career was 22.1%, and that was in his 2008 exposure to AA, though most of his strikeout totals are inflated by small sample size at lower levels. He looked to be comfortably between about 22.5 and 25 percent at the levels where we had significant data, which is still a bit high. He also saw his walk rate dip into the single digits (was between 10 and 11% for most of his minor league career) which may or may not be a bad thing. A cursory glance at his profile suggests as much that he was simply less willing to swing at pitches as any kind of lack of patience. The new-found aggressiveness also resulted in the highest IsoP of his career at AAA, suggesting that the pitches he was swinging at were pitches he could drive.

Interestingly, however, the thing Saunders was lacking at AAA was the ability to make strong, solid line-drive contact. 15% is not a very impressive line drive percentage for a corner outfielder. Indeed, for his minor league career, Saunders was predictably between 14-17% for line drives. That’s something he’ll definitely need to work on as he sees more time in the pros, but there’s not much else to not like (takes walks, avoids strikeouts, has power, brings some speed to the table, etc.). So why is everyone so down on someone that I think is a top 65 prospect at this point? 129 PA at the MLB level, of course. 129 plate appearances isn’t a lot to base anything on, though his low walk rate and high strikeout rate might hint at the aggressiveness shown in AAA not working at the big league level. There was also a spike in ground ball rate and a slight decline in BABIP to a more normalized level. I just don’t think it’s likely that a reliably consistent threat in the lower minors has completely lost it at the major league level. He needs more time. He certainly has age (now just 23) on his side.

From a scouting perspective, Saunders isn’t an elite CF prospect but a passable one; however, where he would really be an asset is in a corner, likely left, for the Mariners. He has a good corner arm and great range for a corner, as well. He’s got enough speed to be a threat on the bases, and he’s really got every tool you could want with a good deal of development to boot. He doesn’t have elite plus power, so he may not be a typical corner outfielder, but he should be useful in some capacity, and soon. For the folks enamored with the distant players, turning out as Saunders has would be a huge win for any of them, and I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more respect for that very reason.

I’m not in love with Saunders swing, as you’ll see here but I am in love with the fact that he’s left-handed. It should definitely help him at least be the strong half of the platoon, which, let’s be honest, is where a player separates himself from the replacement level drek he is competing with. Saunders has a smooth stroke but he has a lot of unnecessary movement before a pitch which I’m never really a fan of. I’m not really in love with his balance or toe-tap, either, and I’m not sure he’s really getting as much weight behind a pitch as he can. He kind of reminds me of Lyle Overbay at the plate, and that may not be a bad comparison, though you’ll add wins for his defense at a premium position and his speed. He does not keep the head of his bat in the zone as often as you’d like to see from a guy that has that level of potential.

Saunders is the type of prospect I flock to, for whatever reason. A legitimate five-tooler with some refinement and coaching who is overlooked for some reason (in this case, his performance in a 129 PA stint in the majors.) I would trade any five-tooler in the low minors for a player like Saunders, who is far from reaching his potential and yet is a much safer bet at this point.