BaseBallstotheWall

As per a reader request, let’s take a look at the Washington Nationals system. I’m not going to spend any time talking about Stephen Strasburg, because, frankly, I’m tired of talking and reading about him. I will say that Project Prospect offers an interesting discussion about his mechanics, essentially claiming that they expect him to get injured in his first few years as a professional. I share their belief about his poor mechanics but won’t make that kind of claim given how uncertain analyzing mechanics really is.

5 Nationals to Watch:

1. CA Derek Norris – Norris has everything you could want in a hitter, with a .286/.413/.513 line in Lo-A at 20. He has injured his hamate bone so you shouldn’t see much in terms of power production going forward next season, but it should return as he returns to full health. He draws walks (nearly 17%), avoids strikeouts for such a youngster (21.5% K) and makes solid contact (20% LD) with a corresponding BABIP (.342). His IsoP was .227, showing remarkably developed power for someone his age. So why isn’t Derek Norris a top 25 prospect? Well, he’s just not likely to stick at C long-term. That said, his bat should play just about anywhere.

2. RP Drew Storen –It’s never really a great sign when a RP is this high in your system, particularly one getting more hype than he ultimately deserves at this point in his career. The 10th overall pick in the 2009 Draft out of Stanford, Storen signed quickly for slot money and shot through the minor leagues. He has a power repertoire though there are some that thought a change-up existed enough for Storen to give starting a shot, though the Nationals ultimately did not agree and would like the immediate impact of a reliever. Storen’s K numbers look great, but the majority of his success happened at Lo-A, when he struckout 44% of the batters he faced. In Hi-A and AA, Storen struckout just 1 more batter than inning pitched, which is nice, but far from dominant. He’s not Daniel Bard out there, so the Nationals shouldn’t be expecting him to light up radar guns or completely shut down opposing lineups with missing bats. Still a very nice prospect, but there’s reason to think he’s much closer to the next Chad Cordero than the next Jonathan Papelbon. Not enough data on Storen to suggest much else, but where are the grounders? He never eclipsed 38% at any of the three levels he pitched at, and across those three levels probably gives us enough of a sample to include he may never do so. That could make him prone to the long ball in tight situations in the bigs, something I’d rather avoid if I could.

3. Chris Marrero –To be completely honest, Chris Marrero may just be my favorite hitter in the Nationals system. He’s had some health problems in the past and plays a position where he really needs to be elite to justify elite prospect rankings, but he’s got a strong pedigree and was highly regarded coming out of the draft. He walked in 9% of his plate appearances at Hi-A, and struckout in just 20% of them. He posted a .177 IsoP and reached base 36% of the time. He did have a bloated .348 BABIP considering his 15% LD. You’d like to see that go up a bit. I’ve read some information that Marrero is seeing some time in the outfield which will help his cause. I really like how calm his approach is at the plate, and I’ve seen multiple videos of him going the other way with power. He’s actually a little bit small in stature so his fit looks like it would work in the outfield. His swing is level and his bat spends a lot of time in the zone. You can see in this video a bit more about his approach.

4. Danny Espinosa –Espinosa is a SS prospect that’s gotten a lot of helium of late because of a solid set of tools combined with solid performance. He should stick in the middle infield, and he posted a 13% BB rate with a 22% K Rate at Hi-A last season as a 22-year old. He sported a .196 IsoP with a .326 BABIP. He also stole 29 bases. What don’t I like? You can start with the 13% Line Drive Rate and the near 50% GB Rate. He’s just not going to project for much power as he advances in the upper minors with that percentage, though he’ll still have use in the middle infield if he can keep up this line with less power. Color me pleased that he’s left-handed, though. He’s got a really quick bat, but I’m not sure it stays in the heart of the zone for as long as I’d like. I will be interested to see how his groundball rates look going forward, because that will either hold him back or catapult him forward.

5. Michael Burgess –Burgess has really fallen from the prospect radar but there’s nothing not to like from a tools perspective with Burgess, and you’re not completely betting on a wildcard with him since he’s proven it in the past. Burgess draws walks (10% last season, impressive coming from a raw highschooler with power) and controlled the strikezone reasonably well compared to the past (24% K rate, down from 30% in 2008). He sported a .175 IsoP, down from last year’s .221 but still showing plenty of promise. He hit just .235 but sported just a .288 BABIP with a 14% LD. Now the BABIP is low but he’ll need to work on making solid contact if he wants to get his average up to even .260 or so. I just think there is more here than bad numbers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back on prospect radars next year. If he hits .260 next season, I think you could be looking at a .260/.350/.500 type line from him. The power is definitely there and he has quite a way of extending himself. He’s short and stocky and extremely powerful, but it’s easy to see a long and loopy swing holding back the contact he needs to make to have success at higher levels. If he can get that in order the potential is there. Think Matt Lawton with less contact skills and more power as Burgess’ peak.

Sleepers: Aaron Thompson and Destin Hood. Thompson was acquired from the Marlins for Nick Johnson last year, and he’s an intriguing lefty who misses some bats and gets grounders. I think he stands a better than average chance of being a useful rotation option in the near future. For Hood, an athletic outfielder drafted out of high school in Alabama with a football build, he’s shown a lot of rawness but some skills in recognizing pitches and he’s a legit five-tooler who is a long, long way away.

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Bonus Roster for Nationals in Two Years:
CA Jesus Flores
1B Derek Norris
2B Danny Espinosa
SS Ian Desmond
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Chris Marrero
CF Nyjer Morgan (elite defender with some offensive skills)
RF Elijah Dukes

Don’t think the Nats will sign Willingham long-term, and I do like Dukes skillset.

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Jordan Zimmerman
SP Ross Detwiler
SP Garrett Mock
SP Aaron Thompson

Like Mock a lot, think Strasburg and Zimmerman could be an interesting 1-2 punch.

Arguably one of the more controversial prospects in baseball today, Dodgers shortstop Devaris Strange-Gordon (yes, related to Tom Gordon) has seen his stock range anywhere from top 40 to outside the top 125 altogether. Let’s first take a look at his 2009 statistical profile:

2009 Performance (Lo-A):
601 PA .301/.358/.394 43 BB 90 K 73 SB 7.2% BB 15% K .357 BABIP 12% LD .093 IsoP

What’s odd about this statistical profile is that the ranking camps are looking at these things two different ways. To start, Strange-Gordon is extremely raw, having played little organized baseball as well as being the physical equivalent of an early teenager in terms of body type. Those folks considering his rawness suggest that his .301 average, 7% walk rate, 15% strikeout rate and 73 stolen bases represent a player that hasn’t tapped into his potential. Those arguing that rawness is an excuse for a lack of physical projection will suggest that for a player with speed as his main asset, his stolen base rate was not great, he’s not making enough contact for someone that lives with speed, and it’s very unlikely that he’ll fill out enough to hit even 10-15 homers. There are also rumblings about him that he may eventually move off of shortstop.

For the record, I’m firmly in the first camp, and am largely impressed with Strange-Gordon’s 2009 campaign. I’m not one to terribly dwell on bloodlines like some publications tend to, but a player who can put up a luck-neutral .300 average with a respectable on-base average is someone that’s going to garner my attention. I’m not at all concerned about his age (21) considering his rawness, and I’m not really worried if he doesn’t fill out. I think we can expect his understanding of the strike-zone to improve with time, which should lead to even more walks and less strikeouts. One would also expect his understanding of stealing bases to improve as he, well, steals more bases. Power’s the last thing to come in most players, but frankly, I don’t see it happening with Gordon. His frame is not conducive to weight gain. I just don’t personally think he has to have it to be quite an asset.

For a couple video links, check here. That is some ridiculous speed. For some video of his swing, check here. He looks a lot like Orlando Hudson in his swinging video, and I think that might be a pretty good comparison. They have similar body types and they both seem to have short and compact swings. He’s lunging a bit in the video that I’ve provided but the swing is level and compact, and for someone as raw as he is, shows considerable upside.

Michael Saunders is one of my favorite players in the minors, and frankly, one of the more underappreciated ones as well. Let’s take a look at his statistical profile from last season for the start of our analysis, courtesy of first inning:

2009 Performance:
AAA 281 PA .310/.374/.544 25 BB 48 K .234 IsoP .342 BABIP 8.9% BB 17.1% K 15% LD
MLB 129 PA .221/.256/.279 06 BB 40 K .058 IsoP .329 BABIP 4.7% BB 31.0% K 15% LD

There are a couple immediate things we can glean from his overall profile that you won’t see reflected in the statistics above, so let’s start with those. Cutting his strikeout rate to 17.1% at AAA was a significant move, as his next lowest number over his career was 22.1%, and that was in his 2008 exposure to AA, though most of his strikeout totals are inflated by small sample size at lower levels. He looked to be comfortably between about 22.5 and 25 percent at the levels where we had significant data, which is still a bit high. He also saw his walk rate dip into the single digits (was between 10 and 11% for most of his minor league career) which may or may not be a bad thing. A cursory glance at his profile suggests as much that he was simply less willing to swing at pitches as any kind of lack of patience. The new-found aggressiveness also resulted in the highest IsoP of his career at AAA, suggesting that the pitches he was swinging at were pitches he could drive.

Interestingly, however, the thing Saunders was lacking at AAA was the ability to make strong, solid line-drive contact. 15% is not a very impressive line drive percentage for a corner outfielder. Indeed, for his minor league career, Saunders was predictably between 14-17% for line drives. That’s something he’ll definitely need to work on as he sees more time in the pros, but there’s not much else to not like (takes walks, avoids strikeouts, has power, brings some speed to the table, etc.). So why is everyone so down on someone that I think is a top 65 prospect at this point? 129 PA at the MLB level, of course. 129 plate appearances isn’t a lot to base anything on, though his low walk rate and high strikeout rate might hint at the aggressiveness shown in AAA not working at the big league level. There was also a spike in ground ball rate and a slight decline in BABIP to a more normalized level. I just don’t think it’s likely that a reliably consistent threat in the lower minors has completely lost it at the major league level. He needs more time. He certainly has age (now just 23) on his side.

From a scouting perspective, Saunders isn’t an elite CF prospect but a passable one; however, where he would really be an asset is in a corner, likely left, for the Mariners. He has a good corner arm and great range for a corner, as well. He’s got enough speed to be a threat on the bases, and he’s really got every tool you could want with a good deal of development to boot. He doesn’t have elite plus power, so he may not be a typical corner outfielder, but he should be useful in some capacity, and soon. For the folks enamored with the distant players, turning out as Saunders has would be a huge win for any of them, and I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more respect for that very reason.

I’m not in love with Saunders swing, as you’ll see here but I am in love with the fact that he’s left-handed. It should definitely help him at least be the strong half of the platoon, which, let’s be honest, is where a player separates himself from the replacement level drek he is competing with. Saunders has a smooth stroke but he has a lot of unnecessary movement before a pitch which I’m never really a fan of. I’m not really in love with his balance or toe-tap, either, and I’m not sure he’s really getting as much weight behind a pitch as he can. He kind of reminds me of Lyle Overbay at the plate, and that may not be a bad comparison, though you’ll add wins for his defense at a premium position and his speed. He does not keep the head of his bat in the zone as often as you’d like to see from a guy that has that level of potential.

Saunders is the type of prospect I flock to, for whatever reason. A legitimate five-tooler with some refinement and coaching who is overlooked for some reason (in this case, his performance in a 129 PA stint in the majors.) I would trade any five-tooler in the low minors for a player like Saunders, who is far from reaching his potential and yet is a much safer bet at this point.