Prospecting Semantics
As some of you may know, in addition to watching video from Prospect Tube, the two places I’m mostly likely to consult for scouting information are Project Prospect and Baseball Prospectus. Oddly enough, it would be difficult to find more conflicting philosophies, with a very general statement suggesting that Project Prospect favors floor and Baseball Prospectus favors shooting for the moon. That said, if you wanted to determine what either site prefers, well…I gave you the link for a reason.
The point of contention for me arises from evaluating pitchers versus hitters. I was struck particularly by some information I read this morning from Adam Foster in his chat here, which is essentially that “all pitchers have a low floor.” I think this shines a light on a very good point: upside, in my evaluation, is far more important as it pertains to pitchers than to hitters. A pitcher who is just good at some things (throwing strikes, getting rounders, missing bats, having a strong history of health) is literally just another guy. Hitters are another story: they have value if they’re just a good defender, if they’re just good at drawing walks and reaching base, or if they just have plus power, you can generally find a fit for them. I’m not focusing tremendously on platoon play because if you read this site you know my preference for right-handed pitchers and left-handed hitters, but I don’t think that is really a unique enough trait to weight in this exercise.
I disagree with the notion that hitters are more valuable than pitchers for almost exactly the same reason that the folks over at Project Prospect seem to be ranking hitters over pitchers, and that’s because the pitchers who can potentially do “everything” have so much more value to me than hitters who can do “everything,” largely because of scarcity. If you draft or rank a 5-tool prospect in the low minors and he winds up not developing the plate discipline necessary to capitalize on massive raw power and elite fielding skills, he still has raw power and fielding skills to potentially making him a positive asset. The reward, however, is that all 5-tools develop and he turns into an elite asset. By contrast, you can find any old pitcher to throw strikes and sport an ERA around 5, and there is a rash abundance of them. There are very few pitchers who can miss bats, control the strikezone and win games, and those are the most important assets in baseball.
If I’m being unclear, let’s take some an opportunity to illustrate my point. Ryan Sweeney, drafted in the second round of the 2003 draft, was drafted as a legitimate 5-tool center-field prospect. He was expected to develop power while playing plus defense, hitting for high average and having strong speed. The power simply has not come, however, and while he’s only 25, it seems pretty unlikely at this point that it’s going to come. It appears that his defensive ability also plays up far better in a corner (he’s played nearly 50% more in RF than CF in his time with the Athletics) and his UZR has been stronger in RF (though should be noted that it’s also VERY good in CF). That means, despite the power, we still have a 4 win player with plus strike-zone control and elite defense. So why shouldn’t we rank him as highly as a pitcher with a similar skillset? Because it’s FAR, FAR more rare that a pitcher can have this level of development, and so believing in one means seeing them with more value.
Perhaps this is a turn from conventional wisdom, but I’m a strong believer in drafting and ranking assets that are more difficult to accumulate. For pitchers, if their strikeout rate declines, their walk rate rises, or their command or stuff worsen, they’re really not unlike every other #4 or #5 starter. They don’t have the uniqueness of elite defense, strong contact skills, massive power, etc. They’re just like everyone else. So you might say, why favor the riskier bet?
It’s simple. The difference between a flawed pitcher and an elite pitcher is so much greater than a flawed 5-tool prospect and a complete 5-tool player. I’d want to hedge my bets.