BaseBallstotheWall

No matter which prospect list you look at, Desmond Jennings is a virtually unanimous choice inside the Top 10. Indeed, in Project Prospect’s very interesting Digital Prospect Guide, the only official Top 10 publication currently out there, Jennings is on it (as Adam has noted, he is actually 2nd on Project Prospect’s top 10 list). So why is he not in my top 10? Well, let’s take a look at the statistics first:

Desmond Jennings
2009 OBP LD% BABIP BB% K% IsoP SB
AA .393 17% .347 14% 11% .170 37
AAA .419 16% .354 11% 11.8% .166 15

From a statistical perspective, it’s hard to have much of a beef with Desmond’s numbers. He generally walks more than he strikes out, he’s had a luck neutral performance, as his stolen bases should illustrate, he has a respectable Isolated Power for someone who bases much of his all-around game around speed, and he looks like a quintessential lead-off hitter. It should be clear by that LD% that he is not, by any means, a slap hitter.

This is an interesting case of actually preferring ceiling to floor a bit, as I’m not a huge believer in Jennings developing 25-30 HR power as he gets a bit older, though I think a lot of people might. If he doesn’t, I question how much better he is than players like Tyson Gillies and Michael Brantley, who clearly will not develop any power (unlike Jennings, who might), but I’ve felt it necessary to include that caveat in my ranking. I also don’t think he is near the natural hitter of Dustin Ackley, who may also play 2B.

Jennings is a gold-glove caliber CF if healthy, though I am understandably concerned with his long list of injury history. This was Jennings first healthy year, well, ever. He may very well break down. I will admit that it is likely that Jennings is a much safer bet to have a good, solid career than Michael Stanton, Domonic Brown and Martin Perez, who are the three people I can see sliding behind Jennings to move him into the top 10, but I think their chances for upside are so much better than Jennings that I’m trying to be aggressive with their rankings. I think if Jennings had a clean bill of health, I may run a different course and put him as high as ninth, but I think it’s a mistake to ignore it considering how close these folks are.

Jennings has an easy swing and his bat spends a lot of time in the zone, so it’s not impossible to see some power coming along. As you’ll see here, there is no doubt that Jennings is capable of generating power but he hasn’t, yet, at least at the level of Stanton. You’re putting a lot of pressure on his other tools if he cannot do that. I’m taking a “show me” approach with that power, and perhaps I’m unfairly hurting him because he becomes similar to other minimal power CF types than some of the other prospects around him. It’s worth noting that his .170 IsoP is far more than what Gillies and Brantley have ever done, so there is certainly a difference. How much difference will it ultimately be, though?