BaseBallstotheWall

Say “Hello!” to a hopefully new series at BBTTW. While I found top 10 prospects a little problematic for a number of reasons (the rankings take more than time allows, the research was excessive and the definition was a little bit difficult and overdone), I feel like highlighting five players I’m interested in for a variety of reasons might be worth mentioning.

3B Kevin Ahrens – DOB 4/26/89, Bats Both, Projected Level: Hi-A
I briefly delved into Ahrens in my last post but he’s a guy who I think could really emerge for a few reasons. For one, he was a first rounder in 2007 and a justified one, so he had the talent to be selected there. For his age and experience level, he’s very solid in walk and strikeout levels (9 and 18%, respectively), not to mention he was unlucky last year with a .263 BABIP. Even adjusted his line was not anything to write home (a really poor 13% LD Rate was largely the culprit) but his swing looks like it is there. In a still pretty thin system, it’s probably a mistake to sleep on his potential. It helps that he’s more than capable of fielding his position.

SS Justin Jackson – DOB 12/11/88, Bats Right, Projected Level: Hi-A
Jackson was a supplemental first round selection in 2007, and largely gets grouped with Ahrens and John Tolisano as busts from the 2007 draft, though it’s a bit early to write him off. Jackson epitomizes toolsyness, and he’s easily the most toolsy player in the limited Jays system. He has what it takes to field SS, he has good speed, he’s got a strong arm and he has the makings of a good hitter. The problem? Jackson can’t make contact. His strikeout rate for the last two years has been nearly 30%, so he’s a much bigger concern for me from Ahrens, though I think the potential return is actually greater, considering his position. Despite the strikeout rate, Jackson still reached based 32% of the time based largely on his very solid 13% walk rate. His Isolated Power was well under .100, but I’m willing to wait a little longer on someone who has shown the ability to walk. I might argue that he needs to be a bit more aggressive if he’s going to make enough contact to be useful.

CA J.P. Arencibia – DOB 1/5/86, Bats Right, Projected Level: AAA
Arencibia isn’t quite ready for the majors but he’s closer than his 2009 line would appear, and he’s gone from over to underrated in the prospect community nearly overnight. He was never a five-star prospect, but it didn’t stop Kevin Goldstein from rating him as such after 2008. That said, he has tremendous raw power in general, nevermind for a C. He also has a strong arm and is developing his defensive game. What he lacks in spades is on-base ability. He walked in just 2.5% of his plate appearances in 2008 at AA. On the bright side, he walked 5.2% of his plate appearances in 2009, which is a significant upgrade. Still lower than I’d like but it shows he’s working and that it is an organizational focus. His average and OBP looked poor last year (.236 and .284, respectively) but it was compounded by an unusually low .269 BABIP. Normalization make his numbers look solid, and he still posted an IsoP of over .200. I think he stands a very strong likelihood of being average or above with that power alone, and if his other skills continue to develop I think he could really emerge has a nice value player.

LHP Henderson Alvarez – DOB 4/18/90, Throws Left, Projected Level: Hi-A
Alvarez might just be the most interesting prospect in the Blue Jays system. He has a marginal fastball which will perpetually hold back his upside, but he has two strong secondary offerings and he’s left-handed. He’s also fantastically young for his level (he’ll be 20 at the start of the 2010 season in Hi-A, no small feat) and he has a track record of success which is rare to say on someone his age. He avoids walks (3.7%) and he gets grounders (53% GB) while effectively performing at a luck neutral level. Unfortunately, Alvarez doesn’t have elite potential because he lacks a dominant fastball and an out pitch. He struck out just 17.3% of the batters he faced last season, and his previous year numbers match up with this as well. He should move fast, however, with his combination of pitchability and command. Keep him in mind as a potential back-end top 100 prospect for a few years, but like a lot of the pitchers the Jays have developed, he should have some success slotting into the back of the rotation. You never know if he’ll pick up some velocity as he fills out, either.

1B David Cooper – DOB 2/12/87 Bats Left Projected Level: AAA
Cooper, selected in the first round in the 2008 draft, was a boring selection. He was a 1B without elite power but the Jays, like myself, greatly valued his approach and floor and expected him to move fast. Indeed, Cooper’s potential is as an above-average defensive first baseman who makes solid contact, takes a walk and can hit for extra bases (at an average but not above-average level adjusted for position). It’s hard to say exactly what went wrong for Cooper, however. He walked 11% of his plate appearances, fanned 17%, posted a normal LD% and BABIP and yet hit just .258 with an IsoP of .131. Both numbers are causes for concerns for me: his minor league data in 2008 was generated by virtue of a very, very high BABIP (never below .362) and even then his power wasn’t very strong. There’s no room in baseball for a .392 SLG% at 1B, and as much as I like his approach, he either needs to be over .300 or hitting for more power. There are nothing in his statistics that explain the low average, so there is cause for concern, but lets give him another year before we call him a bust.

Extra Tidbit: Having done a fair amount of research on OF Jake Marisnick, I can tell you that he has more potential and upside than anyone on this list. In a draft where the Jays failed to sign James Paxton, Jake Eliopoulos and Jake Barrett, Marisnick is the face of this draft, along with RHP Chad Jenkins. Marisnick is a legit five-tool athlete with good power potential and a strong understanding of baseball, though I have read that his swing may need to be overhauled. He’s drawing Rocco Baldelli comps which is concerning considering Baldelli’s unwillingness to walk, but the upside is certainly there. He’s in a system that should preach the need to understand the strikezone (see the developments with Ahrens and Jackson for evidence of that) and he has more natural toolsiness than at least Ahrens and possibly Jackson, too. I don’t expect much from next year but he’s a player to watch a few years from now.