BaseBallstotheWall

Evan Anundsen — RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
DOB 5/17/88
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 131.1 IP, 103 H, 41 BB, 120 K, 2.77 FIP, .288 BABIP, 53% GB, 1% HR/Air

In the estimation of this esteemed blogger, Evan Anundsen is among the most underrated prospects in all of minor league baseball, largely because he has been labeled as a middling prospect because he does not have a blazing fastball or what scouts coin as “elite stuff.” What Anundsen does have, however, is a track record of success, strong peripherals and an organization that finds these types of prospects more often than not.

From a “stuff” perspective, first, Anundsen lives on command and advanced secondary offerings, as his fastball is merely average. He throws his fastball in just the mid-80’s, though he can potentially dial it up as high as the upper 80’s. The fastball has good sink, but you don’t see many pitchers make the majors with that level of fastball, so I suppose it’s somewhat forgivable that he didn’t make the Brewers top 10 list for BA, despite a 2.67 ERA and 120 K in 131 minor league innings last season. Anundsen has at least average, and potentially better, offerings for both his change-up and his curveball, and he has excellent control.

Folks that don’t believe in Anundsen will note that he has a hard time getting batters out on his own (despite the fact that he has a more than respectable 22.7% K rate at Hi-A) or that he’s just taking advantage of hitters who can’t hit secondary pitches and is more advanced than them (despite being just 21 at the end of the season at Hi-A, which is a bit young for the level and at most age neutral). Despite the fact that the scouting report suggests he has to keep the ball in play, his Fielding Independent Pitching metric had him at 2.77 (only .10 points higher than his actual ERA, which suggests very little fielding help in producing his gaudy ERA number). There are a FEW signs of some luck, including a .288 BABIP (he should be somewhere between .305 and .330, though there is some argument above pitchers being able to reduce line drives and some evidence that there is more variance between those standardized numbers) and a 1% HR/Air ratio, which means only 1% of the flyballs he allowed in Hi-A went for homers, which is certainly low.

Even neutralizing Anundsen’s splits for HR/Air and BABIP, we’re still looking at a 3.40 FIP, which is clearly a top 10 prospect resume. There have been numerous studies that suggest that you can generally project a pitcher based almost solely on velocity, but I just think that’s too limited. Now Anundsen may flame out at AA and prove that he’s just another guy beating up on guys who can’t hit off-speed pitches, but I’m a believer.