Hello folks, please enjoy Podcast #1, my first ever podcast. There is information on Brad Lincoln, stats I value and the now overrated ground ball pitcher. Hope you enjoy!
Obviously I understand that the split between a top 100 prospect and a failed top 5 pick is considerable, but after reading John Sickels post today about the Pirates Top 20 Prospects, it’s hard not to wrestle with this. In case you don’t want to click the link, Brad Lincoln was ranked as a C+ (interesting, but a fair amount of warts or very far away, by Sickels’ general rankings), behind such luminaries as Zach Von Rosenberg (2009 MIDDLE ROUND DRAFT PICK) and Tim Alderson (he of the Moskosian 11% K rate at AA).
A little track record on Lincoln, he was the #4 overall pick in the 2006 draft (behind Greg Reynolds, Luke Hochevar and Evan Longoria and ahead of Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow and Andrew Miller), and was known as much for being a hitter as for being a pitcher. Coming out, he had a fastball that could reach the mid-90’s and a hard curveball, and like most pitchers, the development of his change would determine how well he would do going forward. Flash forward a couple of years and Lincoln missed a year and a half with Tommy John Surgery. He began 2009 at AA, and looked really good.
Over 75 innings at AA last season, Lincoln allowed 63 hits while walking 18 and striking out 65. His FIP was just 2.91, though his groundball percentage fell below 50% (45%) and he was a bit lucky with a .285 BABIP. Even still, he was dominant. He was able to miss bats (21.2% clip) and avoid walks (6.1%). Because of his age and injury status, he was quickly accelerated to AAA to see if he could handle the transition, with largely mixed results. In 61.1 innings at AAA Indianapolis, Lincoln allowed 72 hits while issuing 10 free passes and striking out 42 batters. You’ll see that both his strikeout rate and his walk rate dropped (16.1% and 3.9%, respectively) and that his luck got considerably worse (.342 BABIP). Even still, despite some struggles, he sported a Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.81, which remains very solid.
Lincoln’s statistical profile reminds me a bit of Brandon Morrow with better control. He pounds the strikezone with really good, hard offerings, but often times gets himself in trouble by getting too much of the plate. His numbers, including a 35% groundball rate at AAA, indicate he’s probably getting his fastball up a bit too much and people are really taking advantage of it. He’ll have to work on that in the pros, but at least he can find the strikezone. How high he soars with Pittsburgh will largely depend on the continued development of a third pitch and an ability to avoid the extra base hit, which has long been the big concern of mine with him. What we do know is that he has the stuff to miss bats even if he is hittable (I think his potential lies somewhere between 16 and 21% K rate) and he’s not going to issue a free pass, either.
Either way, there is no doubt in my mind Sickels has made a mistake underestimating Lincoln. I expect a long career of #3-#4 caliber innings with enough upside that he could improve on that. Remember, he’s still relatively new to full time pitching.
Max Ramirez — CA/DH/1B, Texas Rangers/Boston Red Sox DOB 10/11/84 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AAA: .234/.324/.336 35 BB/85 K, .321 BABIP, 20% LD, .102 IsoP
Editor’s Note: With the pending Mike Lowell/Max Ramirez trade, I’ve decided not to choose which team he’ll be playing for next year, but I sure hope it’s the Red Sox
Max Ramirez is a polarizing figure in the prospect community and is a difficult guy to figure out for a couple of reasons, starting with concerns about his position. He came up as a third-baseman before converting to catcher. He’s been traded now three times in his career, so someone has a problem with him. That problem, largely, is that he’s probably not a catcher. He’s relatively short, not exactly in good shape and doesn’t play catcher like a catcher should. He’s probably a below average 3B if he goes back to the position, which relegates him to a DH/1B role. His bat will have to carry him.
That brings us to his bat: it’s pretty good, but it was pretty bad last season. Despite sporting a reasonable .321 BABIP (probably a little low given the 20% line drive rate), he still hit just .236 and OPS’d less than .700, despite being more than age appropriate for the AAA level. Now, he was injured (particularly, there were concerns about his wrists and knees), but there is also definite concern about his weight being a problem. He continued to walk at a good rate (nearly 12%, though that is lower than his performance in the lower minors, it is still more than acceptable) but he also struck out nearly 27% of the time, which looks about on par with his upper minors performance. It seems like he’s hitting more and more balls for flyouts, possibly in an effort to gain more power, but it seems to be taking away from his ability to make contact and to hit for average. I’m not sure if this is something Texas is preaching to him or not.
Historically, the thing that concerns me most with Ramirez is that he seems to have benefited from a career of high BABIPs. He has had 5 instances in his minor league career with a BABIP above .357, which is pretty clearly luck or extreme line drive ability unless you’re super speedy, which Ramirez certainly is not. His line drive percentages have been good for his career, but not THAT good (at or approaching 20% on average). Time will tell whether he was extraordinarily lucky or if he really is that good at making good contact.
On a speculative note, I can see why the Red Sox like Ramirez. I doubt they’re too concerned that he catches, but I think they like the flexibility he’d bring as a reserve in the role. I think they’re more interested in the bat, where they can preach to him to stop trying to hit home runs and to continue to work on line drives and solid contact, which should yield improved performance. He’s not going to be a .300 hitter with that K rate, though I do think it may drop with a different approach. I like his walk rate and I think he could be a .280/.370/.450 type of hitter as he matures, but he needs a chance to play.
Wade Miley — LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks DOB 11/13/86
2009 Performance:
Lo-A: 113.2 IP, 127 H, 29 BB, 91 K, .347 BABIP, 3.77 FIP, 57% GB, 5% HR/AIR
Hi-A: 15 IP, 18 H, 4 BB, 11 K, .360 BABIP, 3.11 FIP, 52% GB, 0% HR/AIR
Selected in the supplemental first round (2008) by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Southeastern Louisiana University, Miley appeared to be an interesting cross between projection and performance. He wasn’t exactly performing at a mecca of college baseball, but he was doing the one thing that translates to the minors and majors well: striking batters out.
From a scouting perspective, my major concern with Miley was that he seemed to have questionable command of his pitches at times, and also, that he threw across his body, which is a recipe for pitching injury everywhere. Both Baseball-Intellect and Saberscouting do an excellent job of breaking down the pros and cons to Miley’s approach to pitching. Honestly, I could care less if Miley has a “bulldog” approach to pitching, as both of these websites attest to, but what I do like is that his premier pitch is a breaking ball. Having an elite curve/slider will make Miley’s fastball look better, though these sites are correct in noting that Miley’s future success will depend on the development of his change-up, as you need three pitches to be a successful starter.
As for throwing across his body, it’s one of those things that might just NEED to be the case with Miley. I remember the Red Sox talking about Craig Hansen doing this and trying to alter him, and they’ve all but ruined his career. We saw a similar problem when Jonathan Papelbon adjusted his throwing motion to better compensate for some lingering shoulder soreness. As saberscouting suggests, Miley is able to use his across the body motion to throw off-speed pitches on the outside corner to right-handed batters, which gives him a huge opportunity of maintaining even splits and not having to face a lineup stacked with righties constantly. I have an inherent bias against left-handed pitchers for that very fact.
Because Miley doesn’t have an elite fastball (I’ve heard anywhere between 85-88 and 91-94, so it’s probably in between those two numbers) he still has to rely on command and location to get batters out. If he was walking 8-10% of the batters he was facing at Lo-A, I’d be very concerned about his future status, but given the 6.2% walk rate, I think he has a chance to be successful if he can maintain that. He has great groundball tendencies (57 and 52%, respectively, in his stints this year) and was clearly unlucky based on the BABIP allowed and in looking at his FIP (both times his FIP was under 4 while his ERA was over 4). That is really the nature of being a groundball pitcher in the minors as you’re just not going to get a ton of help from your fielders.
I am concerned about his strikeout rate and his homerun rate. Facing batters that don’t have a lot of power at Lo-A and giving up 8 homers as a groundball pitcher is a concerning number. We’ll see what happens as he moves up but it might illustrate an underlying problem with his command that the statistics are simply not providing us. Additionally, with a knock out curveball, and at his age (22 all year), it would have been nice to see Miley be a bit more dominant. He was good, but not great, and he perhaps should have been given his age and draft status.
In my estimation, Miley could go a couple of ways here (3, to be exact). He could see his K rate dwindle considerably as he faces more capable batters, but still be successful at keeping the ball on the ground and keeping batters from getting extra bases. He could see his K rate dwindle, his command problems return and flame out at Hi-A, or he could continue to miss bats at the rate he has currently and move into a top 5 system prospect type. My money is on option A, which will fasttrack him to the majors as a groundballer but will limit him to a long-relief or back-end starter position, which still has plenty of value.
Evan Anundsen — RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
DOB 5/17/88
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 131.1 IP, 103 H, 41 BB, 120 K, 2.77 FIP, .288 BABIP, 53% GB, 1% HR/Air
In the estimation of this esteemed blogger, Evan Anundsen is among the most underrated prospects in all of minor league baseball, largely because he has been labeled as a middling prospect because he does not have a blazing fastball or what scouts coin as “elite stuff.” What Anundsen does have, however, is a track record of success, strong peripherals and an organization that finds these types of prospects more often than not.
From a “stuff” perspective, first, Anundsen lives on command and advanced secondary offerings, as his fastball is merely average. He throws his fastball in just the mid-80’s, though he can potentially dial it up as high as the upper 80’s. The fastball has good sink, but you don’t see many pitchers make the majors with that level of fastball, so I suppose it’s somewhat forgivable that he didn’t make the Brewers top 10 list for BA, despite a 2.67 ERA and 120 K in 131 minor league innings last season. Anundsen has at least average, and potentially better, offerings for both his change-up and his curveball, and he has excellent control.
Folks that don’t believe in Anundsen will note that he has a hard time getting batters out on his own (despite the fact that he has a more than respectable 22.7% K rate at Hi-A) or that he’s just taking advantage of hitters who can’t hit secondary pitches and is more advanced than them (despite being just 21 at the end of the season at Hi-A, which is a bit young for the level and at most age neutral). Despite the fact that the scouting report suggests he has to keep the ball in play, his Fielding Independent Pitching metric had him at 2.77 (only .10 points higher than his actual ERA, which suggests very little fielding help in producing his gaudy ERA number). There are a FEW signs of some luck, including a .288 BABIP (he should be somewhere between .305 and .330, though there is some argument above pitchers being able to reduce line drives and some evidence that there is more variance between those standardized numbers) and a 1% HR/Air ratio, which means only 1% of the flyballs he allowed in Hi-A went for homers, which is certainly low.
Even neutralizing Anundsen’s splits for HR/Air and BABIP, we’re still looking at a 3.40 FIP, which is clearly a top 10 prospect resume. There have been numerous studies that suggest that you can generally project a pitcher based almost solely on velocity, but I just think that’s too limited. Now Anundsen may flame out at AA and prove that he’s just another guy beating up on guys who can’t hit off-speed pitches, but I’m a believer.