BaseBallstotheWall

For the life of me, I have absolutely no idea why Carlos Carrasco is so, so underrated in baseball circles. I think he’s significantly underrated in major publications (Baseball America, ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels) and immeasurably underrated by the casual fan making a top 100 prospect list. At the simplest level, Carrasco has demonstrated success at the highest level of minor league baseball, and a significant amount of prospects being rated above him will not sniff that level of success, but since Carrasco has been around for so long, people are aware of his flaws much more than some of the shinier, younger prospects. Since 2006, he has been a dominant pitcher, posting a K% near or above 22% in each of his years except for 2007, where he was still productive even with a peripheral slip (you can chalk it up to luck). So yeah, if it were 2007, when he posted a strikeout percentage of just 16% and a walk percentage of nearly 11%, he’d have no place in the top 100 (and even still, he would’ve garnered discussion, since he split the season between Hi-A and AA as a 20 year-old.)

In 2008 he re-established himself as a top 60 prospect with a dazzling performance between AA and AAA, all as a 21 year-old. He fanned just under 25% of the batters he faced while walking around 8.5%. His average on balls in play was a luck neutral line of around 32% (he split between AA and AAA, though I’m approximating because most of the time was in AA [114 IP v 40 IP, roughly]). The one negative was his fielding independent pitching, which was nearly 4.00, and really the only cause for concern. Still, that kind of performance at that age is, as mentioned above, an easy top 60 prospect.

In 2009, he only bettered himself and continued his progress. He posted a 3.6 fielding independent pitching, a 6.5% walk rate, and a slightly lower but still acceptable 22% strikeout rate. He doesn’t show strong ground ball tendencies and his luck was good after he was traded to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal (at least at AAA, he got shelled to the tune of a 42% average on balls in play once he got called to the majors), but nothing about his numbers indicate a significant slip from his previous season, and he’s still really young for the level with a ton of experience. All in all, there’s nothing about his statistical track record that suggests Carrasco won’t be a solid, capable front-middle of the rotation starter who can throw strikes, miss bats and succeed with neutral luck.

Alright, so the stats are there…perhaps his scouting report indicates he’s an overachiever? Let’s take a look. In visiting here, we can see that there’s plenty of reason to like Carrasco’s physical attributes, as well. There is some cloudy language in the report, but Carrasco trends toward a pitcher I tend to be a fan of, which is to say that his out pitch is a quality secondary offering, in this case a change-up. He has a fastball that he can throw for strikes and get to 95, and his potential will be determined by the development of his slider. I’m encouraged because he’s so young that he has the time to get this right. He reminds me a bit of Daryl Thompson, but healthier and with a bit more velocity. Thompson’s a guy I’ve always liked who couldn’t stay healthy and who had very solid secondary pitches to accompany an average fastball. Back to topic, it seems this is an area where detractors could come in and say, “well, his fastball isn’t good enough,” or “his slider is mediocre and holding him back.” I’ll yield some concern over the slider, but he’s close to the majors and has proven success, which is what the majority of players in front of him on other lists can’t lay claim to, despite being even less advanced in terms of repertoire.

Perhaps I’m wrong, the slider will never develop and he’ll be inconsistent. I just like a pitcher who can get outs with a pitch other than his fastball, nevermind a pitcher with this level of track record. This will be interesting to re-visit as the season progresses.