BaseBallstotheWall

I was all set to do an article on some top 100 prospect, or some near miss, but instead, I thought I’d write a bit about the internal debate I wrestle with pretty constantly when evaluating hitting prospects. I say hitting prospects because I think it is fairly easy to evaluate pitching prospects (strikeout percentage, velocity, command and stuff) because you know if a pitcher is having success with strikeouts and command, and he has the physical attributes to back it up, that you pretty much know what you have. With hitters, however, it isn’t nearly that easy. Personally, I spend most of my time wrestling between a hitter’s tools (hitting for power, hitting for average, running speed, arm strength and fielding ability) and a hitter’s ability to get on base and make consistent contact. Ideally, you would like a combination of both, but this is a rarity, especially at the lower levels.

The minors are riddled with people who have tremendous batting practice power but strikeout so much (+30% of the time) that they simply cannot translate that power into an above average slugging percentage in game play without a lot of luck and a very high HR/flyball ratio. At the same time, there are plenty of speed demons who can’t make enough contact to use their speed as an asset. The risk of ignoring these assets altogether is fielding a group of prospects that are merely average, with no breakout potential and a relatively high floor (see the Toronto Blue Jays), so it’s really not clear which strategy to adopt. The generally held belief is that a “safe” pick is really no more successful in the long run than a risky pick, so you may as well shoot for the stars.

I prefer to simply go by my own “tools,” which are as follows: manage the strike zone, play strong defense with good range, draw walks, make strong contact. I don’t tremendously value home run power or general speed outside of the necessity for good range, and I think arm strength is an overrated entity. It’s not without importance but it’s not something I spend a lot of time using to judge prospects. Even still, it’s almost impossible to get a gauge for what a player can do at lower levels so it’s really a crapshoot.

From personal perspective, as far as minor league hitters are concerned, I prefer college players who are athletic and have untapped potential (Brett Jackson from the 2009 draft for instance) and high school players who have proven an understanding of taking a walk and controlling the strike zone. Even still, I’d much rather take a shot in the dark on a raw tools bet (Anthony Hewitt) than a guy who’s going to be a fourth outfielder (A.J. Pollock).

For the life of me, I have absolutely no idea why Carlos Carrasco is so, so underrated in baseball circles. I think he’s significantly underrated in major publications (Baseball America, ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels) and immeasurably underrated by the casual fan making a top 100 prospect list. At the simplest level, Carrasco has demonstrated success at the highest level of minor league baseball, and a significant amount of prospects being rated above him will not sniff that level of success, but since Carrasco has been around for so long, people are aware of his flaws much more than some of the shinier, younger prospects. Since 2006, he has been a dominant pitcher, posting a K% near or above 22% in each of his years except for 2007, where he was still productive even with a peripheral slip (you can chalk it up to luck). So yeah, if it were 2007, when he posted a strikeout percentage of just 16% and a walk percentage of nearly 11%, he’d have no place in the top 100 (and even still, he would’ve garnered discussion, since he split the season between Hi-A and AA as a 20 year-old.)

In 2008 he re-established himself as a top 60 prospect with a dazzling performance between AA and AAA, all as a 21 year-old. He fanned just under 25% of the batters he faced while walking around 8.5%. His average on balls in play was a luck neutral line of around 32% (he split between AA and AAA, though I’m approximating because most of the time was in AA [114 IP v 40 IP, roughly]). The one negative was his fielding independent pitching, which was nearly 4.00, and really the only cause for concern. Still, that kind of performance at that age is, as mentioned above, an easy top 60 prospect.

In 2009, he only bettered himself and continued his progress. He posted a 3.6 fielding independent pitching, a 6.5% walk rate, and a slightly lower but still acceptable 22% strikeout rate. He doesn’t show strong ground ball tendencies and his luck was good after he was traded to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal (at least at AAA, he got shelled to the tune of a 42% average on balls in play once he got called to the majors), but nothing about his numbers indicate a significant slip from his previous season, and he’s still really young for the level with a ton of experience. All in all, there’s nothing about his statistical track record that suggests Carrasco won’t be a solid, capable front-middle of the rotation starter who can throw strikes, miss bats and succeed with neutral luck.

Alright, so the stats are there…perhaps his scouting report indicates he’s an overachiever? Let’s take a look. In visiting here, we can see that there’s plenty of reason to like Carrasco’s physical attributes, as well. There is some cloudy language in the report, but Carrasco trends toward a pitcher I tend to be a fan of, which is to say that his out pitch is a quality secondary offering, in this case a change-up. He has a fastball that he can throw for strikes and get to 95, and his potential will be determined by the development of his slider. I’m encouraged because he’s so young that he has the time to get this right. He reminds me a bit of Daryl Thompson, but healthier and with a bit more velocity. Thompson’s a guy I’ve always liked who couldn’t stay healthy and who had very solid secondary pitches to accompany an average fastball. Back to topic, it seems this is an area where detractors could come in and say, “well, his fastball isn’t good enough,” or “his slider is mediocre and holding him back.” I’ll yield some concern over the slider, but he’s close to the majors and has proven success, which is what the majority of players in front of him on other lists can’t lay claim to, despite being even less advanced in terms of repertoire.

Perhaps I’m wrong, the slider will never develop and he’ll be inconsistent. I just like a pitcher who can get outs with a pitch other than his fastball, nevermind a pitcher with this level of track record. This will be interesting to re-visit as the season progresses.

Probably not that Good.

Austin Jackson — CF, New York Yankees DOB 2/1/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AAA: .293/.354/.403,  4o BB/123 K, .388 BABIP, 24 SB, .106 IsoP, .388 BABIP, 22% LD

Austin Jackson is an interesting, possibly even competent fourth outfielder with some upside to be a second division starting candidate as a center fielder with some interesting athleticism. By all regards he has the speed (60 on the 20-80 scale) and the athleticism to field the position, though I’ve also read that he has, at best, an average arm, and the arm probably projects better at a corner outfield position, where his bat likely won’t play. His strongest supporters will suggest the fact that he is relatively raw to the game of baseball having been a multi-sport athlete (he was a really good basketball player in high school) and still pretty young at AAA (just 22). And, to some degree, I believe they are correct, as it is entirely unfair to judge Jackson in comparison to other 20-somethings coming directly out of college or having focused directly on baseball for much of their high school career.

With that said, players of that ilk (relatively raw with minimal now production and a lot of peripherals that support lesser numbers) are simply not top 100 prospects. You can perhaps give him more credit since he’s in AAA as opposed to Hi-A, but I still think there’s an awful lot of projection going on here to justify inclusion. Personally, I think he’s maxed himself out and basically is what he is, much like Jose Tabata with Pittsburgh (and formerly of the same Yankees). Despite fairly middling numbers (an average of .298 is good, but not mind-blowing for an elite prospect with otherwise empty numbers), his average on balls in play is nearly .400. In his defense, he did a great job of making solid contact (22% of his balls in play were line drives, which are the most likely to become hits), but even with that solid contact his average on balls in play was unsustainably high.

Another cause for concern is Jackson’s very low isolated power number, standing at just .106 for the season. For those who don’t know, isolated power is a simple measure that determines the percentage of balls a player is putting in play for extra bases (which is determined by taking the hitter’s slugging percentage and subtracting their batting average). Even for someone who can offer a bit in terms of speed and solid contact, that’s at the very limit of an acceptable major leaguer, particularly one who also doesn’t get on base at a terrific rate (Jackson walked just 7.7% of his plate appearances this season and his on-base percentage would drop significantly with a neutralized batting average). Indeed, if you quickly neutralize Jackson’s splits for park and luck (using http://www.minorleaguesplits.com), you’ll fine a a line of .260/.323/.357, which is absolutely terrible for anyone, top prospect or not.

I don’t mean to condemn Jackson, either. I still think he’s a guy I’d like to have in my minor league system (strong age relative to league, strong set of tools with major league speed and range, decent projection) but I believe most of the rankings I’ve seen consider him to be a nearly finished product. If that’s the case, you’re looking at a marginal at best (and frankly hardly useful) fourth outfielder. If given a few years to fully develop, it’s still possible there is more here.

Your top 100 prospects, in convenient location. Keep an eye out for continued updates on the post below you detailing position, performance and the reason I like them. Just wanted to make sure my readers had access to the full 100 before other media publications released their own!

1. Jason Heyward
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Brian Matusz
4. Justin Smoak
5. Buster Posey
6. Carlos Santana
7. Michael Stanton
8. Jesus Montero
9. Jarrod Parker
10. Hector Rondon
11. Domonic Brown
12. Martin Perez
13. Dustin Ackley
14. Carlos Carrasco
15. Daniel Hudson
16. Logan Morrison
17. Madison Bumgarner
18. Matt Moore
19. Desmond Jennings
20. Michael Taylor
21. Kyle Drabek
22. Pedro Alvarez
23. Chris Carter
24. Christian Friedrich
25. Brett Wallace
26. Jhoulys Chacin
27. Jennry Mejia
28. Jeremy Hellickson
29. Casey Kelly
30. Wade Davis
31. Timothy Beckham
32. Chris Withrow
33. Jake Arrieta
34. Josh Bell
35. Josh Reddick
36. Devaris Strange-Gordon
37. Jordan Lyles
38. Trevor Reckling
39. Derek Norris
40. Aaron Hicks
41. Matt Dominguez
42. Mike Moustakas
43. Lonnie Chisenhall
44. Brad Holt
45. Eric Hosmer
46. Casey Crosby
47. Mike Montgomery
48. Tyler Flowers
49. Ike Davis
50. Greg Desme
51. Julio Teheran
52. Thomas Neal
53. Jaff Decker
54. Nick Weglarz
55. Jason Knapp
56. Lars Anderson
57. Freddie Freeman
58. Brett Lawrie
59. Yonder Alonso
60. Zach Britton
61. Bud Norris
62. Cody Scarpetta
63. Jemile Weeks
64. Starlin Castro
65. Hak-Ju Lee
66. Ryan Westmoreland
67. Tim Melville
68. Aaron Crow
69. Michel Ynoa
70. Zeke Spruill
71. Jake Odorizzi
72. Simon Castro
73. David Bromberg
74. Ethan Martin
75. Brad Lincoln
76. Josh Vitters
77. Ryan Kalish
78. Daniel Duffy
79. Aaron Crow
80. Wil Myers
81. James Darnell
82. Jay Jackson
83. Todd Frazier
84. Randell Delgado
85. Phillippe Aumont
86. Jordan Walden
87. Trevor May
88. Robbie Ross
89. Michael McKenry
90. Jeanmar Gomez
91. Alex Colome
92. Mike Trout
93. Tony Sanchez
94. Adrian Cardenas
95. Chris Carpenter
96. Jason Castro
97. Mike Leake
98. Tyson Gillies
99. Bobby Borchering
100. Arodys Vizcaino

Much to my displeasure, with the Arizona Fall League up ahead, I’m going to make an abbreviated list to cover the final 40 prospects in my top 100, with a promise to provide more information as time provides. Expect the future of this blog to focus on Arizona Fall League performance, Organizational Top 10’s, Potential Major League Rookie Sleepers, Potential Minor League Rookie Sleepers and prospects that are over or under rated. Anyhow, without much ado, the rest of the top 100:

61. Bud Norris — RHP, Houston Astros DOB 3/2/85 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AAA: 120 IP, 104 H, 53 BB, 112 K, .309 BABIP, 3.69 FIP, 47% GB
MLB: 55.1 IP, 59 H, 24 BB, 55 K, .327 BABIP, 4.73 FIP, 40% GB
Norris essentially is exactly what he is. A pitcher who has some troublesome concerns with control (10.4% BB rate) but who has shown the ability to miss bats as a starter (22.4%). His floor is as a dominant late inning reliever, and I think it’s his most likely destination, but I’m intrigued enough by his performance as a starter this year to think it’s possible he could have a role in the middle of the rotation with some upside beyond that. Please note that Norris eclipsed the prospect threshold in his last start in MLB and wound up at 55 IP, rendering him ineligible for this position. At this point, it’s too late to move him out.

62. Cody Scarpetta — RHP, Milwaukee Brewers DOB 8/25/88 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A: 105 IP, 83 H, 55 BB, 116 K, 47% GB, .298 BABIP, 3.82 FIP
The Brewers have babied Scarpetta considerably, considering he spent two years in rookie ball, but you can understand considering the walk rate (12.25% this year, 14.5% last year). The club is notorious for chancing it with pitchers who don’t exactly hit the strike zone well (Evan Frederickson, Zach Braddock, Jeremy Jeffress) because they believe in the strikeout. Scarpetta’s another guy who might be better fit in the pen but gets the benefit of the doubt for now.

63. Jemile Weeks — 2B, Oakland Athletics DOB 1/26/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .299/.385/.468, .344 BABIP, 19% LD, .169 IsoP
AA: .238/.295/.343, .264 BABIP, 16% LD, .106 IsoP
I think you’d be overreacting to be too worried about Weeks’ performance at AA, where he was painfully unlucky and in a relatively small sample size (125 PA). Weeks doesn’t have a tremendous amount of upside remaining but what he is is a strong stick, average fielding second baseman who should provide good value for the six years the Athletics control him. He gets some knocks because he is Rickie’s brother and because there are some questions about his overall defensive package, but I don’t see any reason to think he won’t be at least an .800+ OPS contributor at a position that teams occasionally have a hard time filling. Depending on what you want to emphasize, you can obvious slide him down the list if you want someone with a lower floor and a higher ceiling. I personally prefer Weeks’ high floor and medium ceiling at this point in the rankings.

64. Starlin Castro — SS, Chicago Cubs DOB 3/24/90 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .299/.334/.388 19 BB/41 K, 24 SB, .331 BABIP, 15% LD, .089 IsoP
AA: .288/.344/.396 10 BB/12 K, .323 BABIP, 20% LD, .106 IsoP
Castro is a pretty remarkable talent and a guy I strongly considered ranking a bit higher before being afraid of getting burned with as much as projection as he requires. Not only is he having success at levels he is two-three years too young for, but he’s doing it with no experience in full-season ball before this season, and he’s doing it at a luck-neutral clip. There is no power there yet, and the walks are obviously low, but with more experience, he could put it together and really explode. By contrast, he could be the next Smiley Gonzalez, or at least possibly Jose Tabata, where he doesn’t really develop the additional skills necessary to support the strong projection.

65. Hak-Ju Lee
66. Ryan Westmoreland
67. Tim Melville
68. Aaron Crow
69. Michel Ynoa
70. Zeke Spruill
71. Jake Odorizzi
72. Simon Castro
73. David Bromberg
74. Ethan Martin
75. Brad Lincoln
76. Josh Vitters
77. Ryan Kalish
78. Daniel Duffy
79. Aaron Crow
80. Wil Myers
81. James Darnell
82. Jay Jackson
83. Todd Frazier
84. Randell Delgado
85. Phillippe Aumont
86. Jordan Walden
87. Trevor May
88. Robbie Ross
89. Michael McKenry
90. Jeanmar Gomez
91. Alex Colome
92. Mike Trout
93. Tony Sanchez
94. Adrian Cardenas
95. Chris Carpenter
96. Jason Castro
97. Mike Leake
98. Tyson Gillies
99. Bobby Borchering
100. Arodys Vizcaino

56. Lars Anderson — 1B, Boston Red Sox DOB 9/25/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
AA: .233/.328/.345 63 BB-114 K .112 IsoP 13% LD
What an absolutely disastrous season for Lars Anderson, as his season supports pretty much the worst possible scenario of the red flags that were in view last season. Anderson reminds me a bit of Max Ramirez in the sense that he’s had a very high average on balls in play throughout his career (.365, .440, .367, .435) without the speed or line-drive percentage to support it. His average on balls in play this year was low at .293, but not unreasonably low. His walk rate dropped 5.3% at the same level in 2009, though he also cut his strikeout rate by 4.1%. His IsoP fell by .98 from 2008 at AA and his LD% dropped 6%, though the line-drive numbers aren’t terribly reliable in the minors. With that said, is this the true Lars Anderson? I don’t think so, personally. He was 21 all season at AA, so he was young for the level, and he was extremely highly regarded from a scouting perspective entering the season. There is a bit of a concern that he’s not very athletic, as I believe a scout referred to him as a 21 year-old Mark Grace (no athletic compliment)

57. Freddie Freeman — 1B, Atlanta Braves DOB 9/12/89 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .302/.394/.447 26 BB-42 K 16% LD .343 BABIP .145 IsoP
AA: .248/.308/.342 11 BB-19 K 17% LD .273 BABIP, .094 IsoP
Freddie Freeman went to very underrated at the end of the 2008 season (.206 IsoP, 15.6% K rate, .897 OPS in A Ball at 18) to somewhat overrated by the start of the 2009 season, as some expected massive power growth and performance. He’s still pretty young, so I think expecting the total package is a bit much, but there’s a lot to like. For one, Freeman has an exemplary control of the strike zone, with a K rate of just 11.2% in AA as a 19 year-old. That level of plate discipline at that age is what keeps him in the top 60 prospects in baseball. He was slightly lucky at Hi-A and much more significantly unlucky at AA, though even with neutralization those numbers are far from friendly. He hit just 8 homers all season (6 of which are at Hi-A) so the power simply isn’t there, but I think the average will be. The .300 Average is something I expect to continue with Freeman given his strike zone mastery. The real question is if he’ll turn into a right-handed Casey Kotchman, in which case he’s JAG (Just Another Guy) or if he’ll develop the power needed to turn into a legit middle of the order player, which he’ll probably have to do considering his current position. I will say that I think the promotion to AA was a rash one, as Freeman had not demonstrated complete mastery of Hi-A.

58. Brett Lawrie — 2B, Milwaukee Brewers DOB 1/18/90 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
A: .274/.348/.454 41 BB-70 K .180 IsoP .308 BABIP 16% LD
AA: .269/.283/.308 0 BB-14 K .039 IsoP .368 BABIP 5% LD
First of all, ignore the performance at AA. He was 19 all season, and no 19 year-old can really deal with AA with much success. I’ve heard some concerns about his ability to play second-base as he moves up the latter, so I think he’s probably a corner outfielder. He would be a top 25 prospect if he had stuck at catcher, which there were rumors of which never ultimately happened. In analyzing his stats, I’m really impressed with his strong ability to make contact, with just a 16.5% strikeout rate despite this being his first year stateside (he’s from British Columbia). His IsoP is equally impressive at .180, and the walk rate, while not great, was nearly 10%. Have to expect that to improve as he matures and fills out. If he can stick at second-base he will be a huge asset, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’ll continue to improve with the stick enough to be an asset anywhere. He ranks lower than some because of his relative rawness as well as a small-sample-size 53 plate appearances without a walk at AA. I expect he’ll move to Hi-A next year and reproduce/improve upon the numbers he had in A Ball last year.

59. Yonder Alonso — 1B, Cincinatti Reds DOB 4/8/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .303/.383/.497 24 BB-30 K .194 IsoP 29% LD .333 BABIP
AA: .295/.375/.457 14 BB-15 K .162 IsoP 25% LD .330 BABIP
Alonso has been unfairly panned this season has being disappointing statistically, though he has been fairly panned as an injury waiting to happen (285 PA total) and a guy who is primarily a platoon option, though the plus side of the platoon (v R). I find that strange and don’t think that’ll last considering he is a righty and they tend to hit lefties pretty well. Given the disproportionate amount of lefties in baseball, however, I don’t think it would hurt him much if he did have that problem. Alonso is frankly this low because of concern over his health. His control of the strikezone, ridiculous line drive percentage, luck neutral statistics and strong draft pedigree all indicate a prospect that could rise in the near future. My suspicion is that Alonso will fly a bit under the radar because of concerns about his injuries, but I think he’s a pretty strong bet to be useful trade bait and a major league call-up by Sept 1 (unless you think Votto’s going man LF for good).

60. Zach Britton — SP, Baltimore Orioles DOB 12/22/87 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 140 IP, 123 H, 55 BB, 131 K, .297 BABIP, 3.41 FIP
Britton is pretty unheralded in prospect circles but has been on my radar for awhile considering his ability to get grounders (a 67% clip this season). Just as a refresher, the reason I prefer ground ball pitchers so much is that statistically, they do the least amount of damage over the long haul, and they’re less likely to go as hits than a line drive. Britton doesn’t have elite stuff but he doesn’t have marginal stuff, either; he’s definitely somewhere in between. His FIP was a bit higher than his ERA but still solid, and while his walk percentage rose to a career high (9.2%), he pushed his strikeout percentage to nearly 22%, and at just 21, he has a chance to push each in the plus direction. There’s no reason to think he was terribly lucky, however, and I think he’s a pretty reliable bet to be at least a serviceable back of the rotation starter. What I like about him is that there are definite signs that he could advance further than that, perhaps as good as a second division number two, if things break correctly.