BaseBallstotheWall

51. Julio Teheran — RHP, Atlanta Braves DOB 1/27/91 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Rk: 43.2 IP, 36 H, 7 BB, 39 K, 3.47 FIP, .291 BABIP, 61% GB
A: 37.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 28 K, 3.96 FIP, .345 BABIP, 49% GB
Teheran’s kind of an iffy type of prospect for me, because his statistical pedigree does not suggest a top 100 prospect (K% of 22.5% and 17.2% at lower levels, good but unremarkable fielding independent pitching), but his scouting reports are off the chart and that’s what I’m going to focus on. Teheran’s fastball reaches the mid-90’s with loose arm action, and he also has an advanced change-up and a plus curveball. I’ve read that his mechanics aren’t exactly great right now, but it’s rare you see a player this young with this level of secondary offerings, and if I had to hedge my bets, I’d suggest Teheran is the one most likely in the minor leagues to do what Martin Perez did this year. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Teheran, in his first full season of minor league ball, becomes a top 10 prospect by the end of the season. As far as statistical focus, I’d really like to see the strikeouts back up the scouting reports, which is the reason he isn’t higher up on this list.

52. Thomas Neal — 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants DOB 8/17/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .337/.431/.579, 65 BB-98 K, .389 BABIP, 18% LD
If you were ranking on pure minor league statistics, you would be hard-pressed to find a better bat in the minors than Neal, but there are a couple caveats worth noting before raising him to the rafters as a top 25 prospect. For one, he was in the hitter’s paradise that is the CAL League (though it is worth noting that his home park actually suppressed performance a bit). His average on balls in play is unsustainably high, considering he’s neither a great athlete or a burner on the field, and the line drive percentage, while good, is not good enough to suggest that 39% of his balls in play should fall as hits. He doesn’t have much of a track record to this point but injuries have derailed him a bit in the past, so it’s certainly reasonable that he just put it all together right now. After all, there are lots of things to like, such as his control of the strike zone (17% K rate to 11% walk rate) and .252 isolated power. Lastly, if you neutralize for park, you’re still looking at a .996 OPS on the season. I don’t know if I think he’s THAT good, and I’d like to see it for more than one season, but it’s possible I could be burned for being a little conservative with Neal here. For certain, he’ll HAVE to hit considering the positions he’s limited to, though you have to like what the Giants system is producing right now.

53. Jaff Decker — COF, San Diego Padres DOB 2/23/90 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
A: .300/.438/.513 82 BB-91 K, .213 IsoP, .364 BABIP, 16% LD
Much like Neal, Decker is an interesting prospect that really can rake. Much like Neal, though, he has a good deal of questions. Decker has a short, stocky build, which means that he’s pretty much maxed out athletically. He’s not a clogger on the bases, but his range and defensive skillset project out as about average if he reaches his peak, though by all accounts he’s a hard worker and has good intangibles. It’s possible that he’s going to have to move to 1B as time moves on. With that said, he has an excellent understanding of the strike zone as a player that hasn’t yet turned 20, he’s shown good power, and he’s hitting for a good average, though it’s largely helped by nearly 36.5% of his balls falling for hits. He’s not exactly without tools entirely, though, it’s just a matter of what you see is what you get. There is some feeling that as Decker moves up in the minors it’s going to be harder to maintain the average and power, but he still looks like an on-base machine. He’s got, IMO, a pretty high floor for a high-schooler as a guy who can get on base, but his power and defensive development will determine other aspects of his game. As a player, he reminds me of a less athletic Brad Wilkerson, and I always liked Wilkerson.

54. Nick Weglarz — COF, Cleveland Indians DOB 12/16/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
.227/.377/.431 75 BB-78 K .204 IsoP .249 BABIP 14% LD
Weglarz is a fairly polarizing prospect because he hasn’t demonstrated all aspects of his repertoire in one season, yet. However, I wouldn’t put too much stock in his batting average, and I actually think once neutralized he’s a pretty similar player to Jaff Decker, who gets the nod because he’s producing at such a young age. Now, neutralization isn’t everything because you have to produce at some point, but Weglarz’ neutralized line for park in luck is .272/.412/.505, indicating he was disastrously unlucky. He improved his IsoP by .4 points and maintained his excellent control of the strike zone. He’s far from a plus defender, and like Decker, he primarily is what he is, which is a useful corner OF that again reminds me of Brad Wilkerson. I am a little bit concerned about that low line drive percentage, which will hurt the ability of his average on balls in play, but I think that may be subject to his confidence this year given the bad luck he had. He’ll never hit for high average though he might from year to year given his contact abilities. If he really learns how to make consistent hard contact, he could really emerge as a plus bat. If you stress closeness to the majors, you’d probably rank Weglarz over Decker.

55. Jason Knapp — SP, Cleveland Indians DOB 8/31/90 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A: 85.1 IP, 63 H, 39 BB, 111 K, 3.13 FIP, .316 BABIP
I’ve been putting off ranking Knapp for awhile, largely because of a bias against the fact that he wasn’t even RANKED in the top 200 Baseball America prospects pre-draft in 2008, though the Phillies have a penchant for finding interesting players in that regard. He was traded as the main “upside” play in the Indians Cliff Lee deal, though was overshadowed by Carlos Carrasco as the main piece. I deliberately did not include the final 11.2 IP he pitched with Cleveland as I really had no idea what they were trying to do with him post trade. He was frankly getting tons of buzz around midseason before cooling off a little bit. He has three quality pitches, including a mid-90’s fastball, though the secondary pitches are understandably inconsistent. In looking at his mechanics he’s not exactly the most smooth thrower, and as baseball-intellect mentions, he’s kind of an “armsy thrower.” I agree with them that it’s possible he could be moved to the pen, particularly with an organization like Cleveland that has flirted with both Hector Rondon and Alex White going to the pen. I really don’t like his leg kick, but I suspect with time and work, he could work that out and improve his control. He looks like a flyball pitcher but the ultimate fact is that he missed almost 31% of the bats he faced. I’ll take that with me to the bank and worry about the rest later.