BaseBallstotheWall

51. Julio Teheran — RHP, Atlanta Braves DOB 1/27/91 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Rk: 43.2 IP, 36 H, 7 BB, 39 K, 3.47 FIP, .291 BABIP, 61% GB
A: 37.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 28 K, 3.96 FIP, .345 BABIP, 49% GB
Teheran’s kind of an iffy type of prospect for me, because his statistical pedigree does not suggest a top 100 prospect (K% of 22.5% and 17.2% at lower levels, good but unremarkable fielding independent pitching), but his scouting reports are off the chart and that’s what I’m going to focus on. Teheran’s fastball reaches the mid-90’s with loose arm action, and he also has an advanced change-up and a plus curveball. I’ve read that his mechanics aren’t exactly great right now, but it’s rare you see a player this young with this level of secondary offerings, and if I had to hedge my bets, I’d suggest Teheran is the one most likely in the minor leagues to do what Martin Perez did this year. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Teheran, in his first full season of minor league ball, becomes a top 10 prospect by the end of the season. As far as statistical focus, I’d really like to see the strikeouts back up the scouting reports, which is the reason he isn’t higher up on this list.

52. Thomas Neal — 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants DOB 8/17/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .337/.431/.579, 65 BB-98 K, .389 BABIP, 18% LD
If you were ranking on pure minor league statistics, you would be hard-pressed to find a better bat in the minors than Neal, but there are a couple caveats worth noting before raising him to the rafters as a top 25 prospect. For one, he was in the hitter’s paradise that is the CAL League (though it is worth noting that his home park actually suppressed performance a bit). His average on balls in play is unsustainably high, considering he’s neither a great athlete or a burner on the field, and the line drive percentage, while good, is not good enough to suggest that 39% of his balls in play should fall as hits. He doesn’t have much of a track record to this point but injuries have derailed him a bit in the past, so it’s certainly reasonable that he just put it all together right now. After all, there are lots of things to like, such as his control of the strike zone (17% K rate to 11% walk rate) and .252 isolated power. Lastly, if you neutralize for park, you’re still looking at a .996 OPS on the season. I don’t know if I think he’s THAT good, and I’d like to see it for more than one season, but it’s possible I could be burned for being a little conservative with Neal here. For certain, he’ll HAVE to hit considering the positions he’s limited to, though you have to like what the Giants system is producing right now.

53. Jaff Decker — COF, San Diego Padres DOB 2/23/90 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
A: .300/.438/.513 82 BB-91 K, .213 IsoP, .364 BABIP, 16% LD
Much like Neal, Decker is an interesting prospect that really can rake. Much like Neal, though, he has a good deal of questions. Decker has a short, stocky build, which means that he’s pretty much maxed out athletically. He’s not a clogger on the bases, but his range and defensive skillset project out as about average if he reaches his peak, though by all accounts he’s a hard worker and has good intangibles. It’s possible that he’s going to have to move to 1B as time moves on. With that said, he has an excellent understanding of the strike zone as a player that hasn’t yet turned 20, he’s shown good power, and he’s hitting for a good average, though it’s largely helped by nearly 36.5% of his balls falling for hits. He’s not exactly without tools entirely, though, it’s just a matter of what you see is what you get. There is some feeling that as Decker moves up in the minors it’s going to be harder to maintain the average and power, but he still looks like an on-base machine. He’s got, IMO, a pretty high floor for a high-schooler as a guy who can get on base, but his power and defensive development will determine other aspects of his game. As a player, he reminds me of a less athletic Brad Wilkerson, and I always liked Wilkerson.

54. Nick Weglarz — COF, Cleveland Indians DOB 12/16/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
.227/.377/.431 75 BB-78 K .204 IsoP .249 BABIP 14% LD
Weglarz is a fairly polarizing prospect because he hasn’t demonstrated all aspects of his repertoire in one season, yet. However, I wouldn’t put too much stock in his batting average, and I actually think once neutralized he’s a pretty similar player to Jaff Decker, who gets the nod because he’s producing at such a young age. Now, neutralization isn’t everything because you have to produce at some point, but Weglarz’ neutralized line for park in luck is .272/.412/.505, indicating he was disastrously unlucky. He improved his IsoP by .4 points and maintained his excellent control of the strike zone. He’s far from a plus defender, and like Decker, he primarily is what he is, which is a useful corner OF that again reminds me of Brad Wilkerson. I am a little bit concerned about that low line drive percentage, which will hurt the ability of his average on balls in play, but I think that may be subject to his confidence this year given the bad luck he had. He’ll never hit for high average though he might from year to year given his contact abilities. If he really learns how to make consistent hard contact, he could really emerge as a plus bat. If you stress closeness to the majors, you’d probably rank Weglarz over Decker.

55. Jason Knapp — SP, Cleveland Indians DOB 8/31/90 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A: 85.1 IP, 63 H, 39 BB, 111 K, 3.13 FIP, .316 BABIP
I’ve been putting off ranking Knapp for awhile, largely because of a bias against the fact that he wasn’t even RANKED in the top 200 Baseball America prospects pre-draft in 2008, though the Phillies have a penchant for finding interesting players in that regard. He was traded as the main “upside” play in the Indians Cliff Lee deal, though was overshadowed by Carlos Carrasco as the main piece. I deliberately did not include the final 11.2 IP he pitched with Cleveland as I really had no idea what they were trying to do with him post trade. He was frankly getting tons of buzz around midseason before cooling off a little bit. He has three quality pitches, including a mid-90’s fastball, though the secondary pitches are understandably inconsistent. In looking at his mechanics he’s not exactly the most smooth thrower, and as baseball-intellect mentions, he’s kind of an “armsy thrower.” I agree with them that it’s possible he could be moved to the pen, particularly with an organization like Cleveland that has flirted with both Hector Rondon and Alex White going to the pen. I really don’t like his leg kick, but I suspect with time and work, he could work that out and improve his control. He looks like a flyball pitcher but the ultimate fact is that he missed almost 31% of the bats he faced. I’ll take that with me to the bank and worry about the rest later.

46. Casey Crosby — LHP, Detroit Tigers DOB 9/17/88 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
A: 104.2 IP, 70 H, 48 BB, 117 K, 3.14 FIP, .279 BABIP, 55% GB
Crosby has a littany of serious injury concerns and played his first full season as a twenty year-old in A Ball, and the results were pretty strong. The control was understandably a little off, with a walk rate over 11% per plate appearance, but the strikeout rate is extremely strong (over 27%), the ground ball tendencies are encouraging and the health over the season was a good sign as well. He’s got a premium arm and I think he’s a sure bet to be either an elite back of the bullpen guy or a potential front-end starter if he can harness his control a bit more. He was a bit lucky with the average on balls in play but that’s largely nitpicking at this low of a level. We don’t know a ton about him since he was not exactly young for the level, so next year will be a good test. A repeat of his 2009 campaign will see him as a top 25 prospect next season.

47. Mike Montgomery — LHP, Kansas City Royals DOB 7/1/89 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
A: 58 IP, 42 H, 24 BB, 52 K, 3.36 FIP, 59% GB, .272 BABIP
Hi-A: 52 IP, 38 H, 12 BB, 46 K, 45% GB, 2.45 FIP, .257 BABIP
Montgomery sports a strong scouting report, with a fastball between 89-93 that can reach 95, a big, looping curveball and an average change up. He’s got a nice build on him, as he’s 6’5 but still under 200 pounds, so a lot of scouts think he’ll be able to add to his velocity as time moves on. Statistically, he has not exactly dominated at the levels, but he is young for them and has had success. Interestingly, he pitched much better at Hi-A (5.7% walk rate, 21.7% K rate) than Lo-A (10.3% walk rate, 22.4% K Rate), but both results are encouraging. Assuming his walk rate is somewhere in between there and his K rate can improve as he fills out, I see no reason why he can’t be a front of the rotation type starting pitcher. I’m uncertain about his tendencies project as he posted just a 45% Groundball rate at Hi-A (but 59% at Lo-A), so we’ll get a better idea on that next year as well. He’s been lucky in terms of hits on balls in play, but even a neutralized performance looks pretty good if he can miss bats in the future. I’d like to see the Royals give him a full year at Hi-A next year, considering he’ll be just 20 for most of the season and he’s not the type I’d rush.

48. Tyler Flowers — CA, Chicago White Sox, DOB 1/24/86 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .306/.448/.552 57 BB-75 K .246 IsoP, .394 BABIP, 21% LD
AAA: .286/.361/.438 10 BB-32 K .152 IsoP, .394 BABIP, 13% LD
Flowers is a bit of a controversial prospect for a couple of reasons: for one, he’s huge (6-4, 220) and there are questions if he can stay behind the plate, and he’s been absurdly lucky, with an average on balls in play nearing .400. There was also a strong dip in his peripherals as he advanced to AAA (walk rate dropped 9.6% from AA, strikeout rate rose 3.2% in same move), though I’ll chalk that up to him adjusting as a catcher to a higher level. It always seem to take longer for them. Flowers had an elite Arizona Fall League performance in 2008 and established himself as a bigtime prospect before being traded as the centerpiece in the Javier Vazquez deal before 2009. That’s a redflag to me, because I trust Atlanta’s prospect valuations (though they’ve also moved Andrus, Feliz, etc.) so who knows. I don’t think Flowers is likely to be a high average producer at the major league level but I think he’ll have above average power if he can stick at catcher, and I think he’ll take his share of walks while making good, hard contact. How much good contact he makes (read strikeout percentage) will determine just how useful he is, though you have to be concerned about the drop in line drive percentage to 13% at AAA from 21% at AA (though only 119 PA). He actually reminds me of Josh Donaldson with more power, and I think that definitely has value. As long as he’s a catcher, he’s a major leaguer, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t get that opportunity in Chicago.

49. Ike Davis — 1B, New York Mets, DOB 3/22/87 Bats Left
Hi-A: .288/.376/.486 31 BB-52 K, .350 BABIP, .198 IsoP
AA: .309/.386/.565 26 BB-60 K .381 BABIP, .256 IsoP
Ike Davis has played in a couple of nice hitters parks this year, so the numbers are inflated, and he’s been pretty lucky, considering the average on balls in play at around 36.5%. He’s also limited to first base, though there are at least some publications that suggest some corner outfield action wouldn’t be impossible at an average level. I think he can be a plus at first base, defensively. Davis is not a 162 game a year type player, or at least shouldn’t be, but his domination of right-handed pitching this season merits inclusion this high on the list. He sported an OPS of at least .975 in both Hi-A and AA versus right-handed pitching, and should be an elite, middle of the order type hitter in the strong-side of the platoon. His strikeout percentage at Hi-A was quite good as a slugger (20.4%) and his walk rate at both levels (12.2 and 11.2%, respectively) was at least solid. He struck out too much in AA but he also won’t turn 23 until the start of next season, so he’s got time to adjust. He certainly helped quell concerns over his lack of power in his debut, mashing 31 doubles and 20 homers in less than 500 plate appearances this year. If adequately used I see a guy who can give strong, middle of the order production and play plus defense, but it’s not in the most traditional sense given his drastic splits. He really cannot hit lefties, which is fine since I don’t want lefties hitting lefties, anyway. As I mentioned, luck helped, and he needs to be great at this position, but based solely on this year, he’s looking good.

50. Greg Desme — Center Fielder, Oakland Athletics, DOB 4/4/86 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
A: .274/.333/.490 21 BB-81 K 24 SB, .359 BABIP, .216 IsoP
Hi-A: .304/.398/.656 33 BB-67 K 16 SB .352 IsoP, .350 BABIP
Desme, in my opinion, is possibly the most intriguing and polarizing prospect in the minor leagues. A second round pick in 2007 from Cal Poly, he missed all of 2008 and didn’t play much in 2007, but he was regarded as toolsy when he came out and has made a lot of progress over the course of this season. By all accounts he can play respectable defense in centerfield, he has tremendous speed (40 steals) and quite a bit of raw power (31 homers). He’s not great at making contact (28.1 and 25.4% strikeout rates, respectively), but he did improve on taking walks as he moved up (7.3% walk rate to 12.5% walk rate). His average on balls in play was high and his line drive percentage was kind of inconclusive (including a hard to believe 7% in Hi-A) but the raw talent is clearly there, and so is some of the production. The guy could easily completely flame out next year in Greg Halman like fashion, and he’s certainly not young, as he’ll be 24 to start next season, but I really find him intriguing and could see him as a potential superstar if he can continue to work on that strikeout rate. I’d like to see a strong promotion to AA next year to see if he can maintain that improvement of his strikeout rate and continue hit for tremendous power. A lot of people are going to dismiss him because of the strikeouts but the rest of the package is pretty darn impressive.

41. Matt Dominguez — 3B, Florida Marlins DOB 8/28/89 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .263/.333/.420 38 BB-68 K .158 IsoP .295 BABIP
AA: .186/.289/.320 14 BB-24K .134 IsoP .225 BABIP
Dominguez being listed above Moustakas (below) will surprise some considering Dominguez was ranked well below Moustakas in the same draft year when they came out. I don’t think Dominguez has Moustakas’ ceiling, but he’s also very far from being a finished product. He is the best defensive third baseman in the minors, he controls the strike zone favorably (15.2% strikeout rate at Hi-A, where he had 429 of his 540 plate appearances), and he has improved his walk rate considerably (up 1.6% and 6%, respectively, in Hi-A and AA, from 2008). His power regressed in 2009, but he also played an extreme pitchers park and was considerably better after the all-star break. His post ASB surge earned him a promotion to AA, but the bat is clearly not ready for that. He’s absolutely a major leaguer with the glove, it’s a matter of how much the bat comes along that will determine how good he’ll be, though his peripheral improvement certainly helps his cause. I think Scott Rolen is a good comparison for him if he reaches his peak. I will note that I’ve heard concerns about him not quite being filled out yet, or potentially ever, which would certainly hurt his ceiling.

42. Mike Moustakas — 3B, Kansas City Royals DOB 9/11/88 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A:  .251/.296/.422 32 BB-90 K .171 IsoP, .278 BABIP
As mentioned above, Moustakas is a real strong tools bet, with a lot of red flags, but his previous success makes it hard to drop him any further. In focusing on the positive, the isolated power is pretty impressive for someone his age in Hi-A, the strikeout rate is a solid 17% and he’s been unlucky, with only 28% of his balls in play falling for hits. On the downside, there have been questions defensively, he’s hitting more balls on the ground, his walk rate dropped 1.8% (and his K rate rose 1.3%) and his on-base percentage was below .300. At the same time, there are few that can match his offensive toolset in the minors, which he could turn on any moment. He’s got plenty of time to figure it out, too, considering his age and past success. I’d like to see him repeat Hi-A, or at least get half a year there, before being bumped to AA.

43. Lonnie Chisenhall — 3B, Cleveland Indians DOB 10/4/88 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .276/.345/.492 .216 IsoP .307 BABIP
AA: .183/.238/.387 .204 IsoP .178 BABIP (101 PA)
There has been a lot of talk of putting Chisenhall in the top 25, and I think that’s a bit much based on what he has currently done in the minors. Chisenhall was a JuCO shortstop and a surprise first round pick, but his bat has played well. He’s shown really strong power (.216 IsoP and .204 IsoP, respectively), good contact skills and is generally young for the league. You might expect a bit higher average as time moves forward as he has been a bit unlucky, but I’d like to see the walk rate rise (8.6% at Hi-A, 6.9% in AA) and that is what keeps him behind Dominguez and Moustakas for me. It really depends on what you want to stress between the three, though Chisenhall is probably the best balance between current power and defensive ability. He’s certainly the farthest along, though my belief is that his ceiling is the lowest of the three. Still, he’s a strong candidate to start for the Indians at third base in 2011, and has been great return on a 2009 pick that was questioned fairly soundly.

44. Brad Holt — RHP, New York Mets DOB 10/13/86 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 43.1 IP, 34 H, 13 BB, 54 K, .293 BABIP, 3.15 FIP
AA: 58 IP, 58 H, 23 BB, 45 K, .304 BABIP, 4.96 FIP
Holt has a ton of velocity, good body control and a developing repertoire of secondary pitches. He’s also got a tremendous track record of getting strikeouts, with the caveat that they haven’t translated quite as well to AA (18.7% strikeout rate). It’s hard not to be astounded by his 31.2% strikeout rate at Hi-A, compared with just a 7.5% walk rate. He doesn’t have ground ball tendencies and is leaning in the extreme flyball direction, but he’ll be fine if he continues to miss bats at an acceptable clip. He has been able to sustain velocity late into games, and he hasn’t been particularly lucky at either level. He’s not the most complete pitcher yet so it doesn’t surprise me that the strikeouts have dropped a bit as he has moved up to AA, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them rise as he gets more time there next year. His status as an impact prospect will be determined entirely by whether or not he can raise his strikeout rate another 4 or 5% at this higher level, but his past and his stuff certainly suggest he’s capable of doing so.

45. Eric Hosmer — 1B, Kansas City Royals DOB 10/24/89 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
A: .254/.352/.382 44 BB-68 K .128 IsoP .319 BABIP
Hi-A: .206/.280/.299 9 BB-22 K .093 IsoP .257 BABIP (107 PA)
You’re probably wondering where the power is with Hosmer, but that doesn’t bother me nearly as much  as his positioning bothers me relative to his power. I don’t think there’s really any doubt that his power WILL come, but the power HAS to come since he’s pretty much limited to first base. Hosmer walked 13.5% of his plate appearances and struck out slightly less than 21% of the time, which is impressive given this is first exposure to full season ball. He hit just 6 homers all season, and I think a lot of people thought he was a bit more advanced as a prospect than this, though the adjustment to wood bats might be bothering him a bit. He’s been unlucky at Hi-A and I wouldn’t put much stock in his performance there. The guy was a surefire a bet to be an elite hitter when he was drafted last year, and I don’t see the lack of power, or anything else, as a reason to believe that he won’t develop into that player.

36. Devaris Strange-Gordon — SS, Los Angeles Dodgers DOB 4/22/88 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
A: .301/.358/.394 43 BB – 90 K, .093 IsoP, .357 BABIP, 73 SB
The son of Tom Gordon, when the Dodgers drafted Gordon last year I was dumb founded, as I had absolutely no idea who he was. Looks like they pulled one over on me. Despite being 20, in terms of baseball experience, Gordon is much younger than that. He’s raw, and hasn’t played a ton of baseball to date. He’s got absurd athleticism and speed, as evidences by his average on balls in play and his stolen bases. He’s a nice balance of excellent tools and current production, as he’s sporting a sustainable average (.301) with good contact rates (15.1% strikeouts). Some might quibble with his current power, but there are some projections of that coming. Even if it doesn’t, he’s a four tool player with huge upside. He’s one of the most exciting players in the minors.

37. Jordan Lyles — RHP, Houston Astros DOB 10/19/90 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A: 144.2 IP, 134 H, 38 BB, 167 K, 46% GB%, .348 BABIP, 2.70 FIP
If you asked me who the biggest overdraft of last years draft was, I would have said…Jason Castro. Lyles would have been next on that list, as he just didn’t have the kind of scouting reports that more highly touted high schoolers had, but it just kind of shows you the crapshoot that scouting is. You also can tell that you’re drifting away from  high level talent and production types, so we’re drifting towards low level production or higher level guys with some significant questions. Lyles’ strikeout percentage (27.8%), walk percentage (6.3%) and fielding independent pitching (2.70) all suggest a dominant season. He was a multiple sport athlete in high school and his dedication to baseball alone has apparently greatly refined his skills. He was said to have a high-80’s to low-90’s fastball coming out of high school but reports are that it has gained velocity to complement advanced secondary offerings. He has an easy delivery and it is highly repeatable. He’s even been a little unlucky, with 35% of his balls in play accounting for hits (average would be somewhere between 31% and 33%). Has he continues to focus on baseball, I think he’ll only get better. I’d be quite surprised if he’s not a top-20 prospect as early as next year.

38. Trevor Reckling — LHP, Anaheim Angels DOB 5/22/89 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 19 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 16 K, .149 BABIP, 3.93 FIP
AA:  135.1 IP, 118 H, 75 BB, 106 K, .305 BABIP, 3.85 FIP
This is an aggressive ranking on my part with Reckling, but there simply aren’t many pitchers who are showing flashes of performance and skill above Hi-A, and he’s one of them. Barely 6’, if that, Reckling has constantly battled labels of being too short, being limited in stamina and being destined for the bullpen, but his performance to this point in his career suggests otherwise. After fanning 23.5% of the batters he faced in Hi-A, he’s fanning 18.4% in AA, which is a little low, but he’s projected to add velocity as his small frame fills out to complement his strong secondary offerings. His control at AA has also diminished, as the walk rate is 13%, but again, it’s important to note that he didn’t turn 20 until after he was promoted to AA in the first place. He could repeat AA and still be extremely young for the level. He doesn’t have the pure stuff of some of the other people moved to AA at a young age (Bumgarner, Phillippe Aumont, Jennry Mejia), but his success is hard to deny. I think he’s a break out candidate if he can harness his control further and continue to develop velocity to match his Hi-A strikeout rates.

39. Derek Norris — CA, Washington Nationals DOB 2/14/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A: .286/.413/.513, 90 BB-116 K, .342 BABIP, .227 IsoP
Drafted in the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Norris is one of the fastest rising prospects in baseball, and while #39 might not seem terribly high to you, that’s remarkable given his current level (low A). He has shown a strong eye (16.7% walk rate), a reasonable strikeout rate for someone his age (21.5%), very strong power (23 homers, .227 IsoP) and has improved behind the plate as the season has gone on. His performance has been essentially luck neutral, as there isn’t enough of a career history to suggest what his standard average on balls in play is. Norris’ performance is particularly stunning when you consider that catchers tend to develop relatively slowly, with players as old as 23 or 24 playing in AA and not considered old. He could be there by the end of his 21 season. He’s not playing against the greatest level of competition right now (one reason he’s behind Reckling), but he’s a top 10 prospect if he keeps this up next year.

40. Aaron Hicks — CF, Minnesota Twins DOB 10/2/89 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
A: .251/.350/.382 40 BB-55K, .307 BABIP, .131 IsoP
While Hicks power game isn’t as advanced as the fellow before him in my rankings, his toolbox is as big as almost any minor leaguer in the game. He’s got speed, strong defensive skills, a great arm, good pitch recognition and projectable power. He walked 13.5% of his plate appearances while fanning just 18.5%. While line drive percentage is relatively unreliable at lower levels, his was 21%, which suggests that his low average on balls in play is a result of bad luck. It was interesting that the Twins as a hitter because most thought he was a better fit on the mound. It was surprising how strongly he debuted in 2008, and he’s followed it up with another solid effort. There’s a ton of untapped potential here and it would be hard to find many with a bigger ceiling. For those overrating Ben Revere, it’s not even a contest between the two. I don’t even think he’s the second best prospect in centerfield for the Twins, though, as you’ll see later.

31. Timothy Beckham — SS, Tampa Bay Rays DOB 1/27/90 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
A: .273/.326/.387 34 BB-115K .348 BABIP .114 IsoP
The statistics don’t stand out for Beckham, but he’s a pure five-tool talent with at least some measure of performance, and that’s worth noting in a relatively shallow pool of talent in general. He’s shown flashes of speed and contact ability, and he’s striking out at only a 21.6% clip, which is surprisingly good for 19 year old in his first exposure to full season ball. It’s always a guess as to how much power is going to develop with these types of talents but his athleticism will play well with the type of players that Tampa Bay prefers to develop. The walk rate is nothing impressive at just above 6%, but that should come in time, particularly with the decent strikeout rate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Beckham takes a giant step forward next year, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he stays about the same. Expect a lot of people to overreact next year if he puts up a similar line at Hi-A or Lo-A. Personally, it won’t impact my perception of him since I’m betting on the tools anyway.

32. Chris Withrow — RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers DOB 4/1/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 86.1 IP, 80 H, 45 BB, 105 K, 3.49 FIP, 42% GB
AA: 27.1 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 26 K, 3.58 FIP, 40% GB
To say that Withrow is flying under the radar would be a drastic understatement. Despite pitching just four innings of full-season ball in 2008 before missing all of the season with injury, he has blown through Hi-A and advanced to AA at a very young age, which is even younger when you consider the injury. His K rate has been spectacular, particulary at Hi-A, where it was 28.2%. His mechanics are extremely smooth, some of the smoothest in the game. His average on balls in play was extremely high at Hi-A (.367), so he was really kind of unlucky while still dominating. He doesn’t have terribly strong tendencies in terms of grounders, and he walks too many, but I don’t think either are significant hurdles in him becoming an elite prospect. I’d be quite surprised if those walks don’t come down with another year after injury. He won’t be ranked this high on other lists, but his combination of stuff, mechanics and performance certainly justifies it. I’ll say that the one thing that holds him back is a lack of track record, though the pedigree is there.

33. Jake Arrieta — RHP, Baltimore Orioles, DOB 3/6/86 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AA: 59 IP, 45 H, 23 BB, 70 K, 3.04 FIP, 40% GB
AAA: 91.2 IP, 97 H, 33 BB, 78 K, 4.11 FIP, 41% GB
I feel similarly about Arrieta as I do/did about Wade Davis. I don’t think he’s a front of the rotation caliber talent because his control his marginal (though improving), his tendencies are toward the fly-ball and his ratios aren’t terribly consistent at higher levels. When he’s on, though, he can miss bats and dominate games, and at the AAA level, he’s so close to helping the Orioles that it’s hard to keep him any lower. It bothered me that he came off a pretty terrible year the year he was drafted, but the stuff has always been there and the performance is improving. In general, you want to bet on the strikeouts and he’s demonstrated an ability to accumulate those in spades, including a 28.7% strikeout percentage at AA. He’s not fanning quite as many at AAA (19.5%), which could be a warning sign, but it could be any of a number of other things, including fatigue or adjustment. We’ll have a better idea of what he can do when he begins AAA next year, but it’s clear to me that if he doesn’t improve the K rate as a starter, he’ll be a dominant, lights out reliever, and that has a lot of value (particularly if his control continues to improve).

34. Josh Bell — 3B, Baltimore Orioles, DOB 11/13/86 Bats Switch
2009 Performance:
AA: .298/.354/.579, 11 BB – 28 K, .325 BABIP, .281 IsoP
AA: .296/.386/.496, 50 BB – 70 K, .346 BABIP, .200 IsoP
Like Chris Withrow, Josh Bell, a former Dodgers prospect who came over for George Sherrill at the trade deadline, is flying under the radar. He’s got a polished approach, he’s at an advanced level at a relatively young age, and he’s producing on some of the tools in his toolbox. He played better in LA than he has in Baltimore, but both lines are impressive. His strikeout percentage is less than 20% on the season, his walk rate is around 11% (a little low, but not terrible) and his IsoP is around .240. He’s not elite at the third-base bag, but he’s not a butcher either and should be able to handle the position adequately in the majors. At most he’s been slightly lucky, but his .346 average on balls in play is helped by a 20% Line Drive Percentage. I think his improvement is real and I think he fits nicely high on this list given the general lack of useful upper minors hitters.

35. Josh Reddick — OF, Boston Red Sox, DOB 2/19/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .277/.352/.520, .320 BABIP, .243 IsoP
AAA: .127/.190/.183, .155 BABIP, .056 IsoP (79 PA)
MLB: .182/.229/.394, .227 BABIP, .212 IsoP (35 PA)
Reddick was rushed to the majors because of injuries, but I was just very impressed by the way the ball jumps right off of his bat. He’s had kind of a difficult season this year because he’s been asked to become more patient (10.5% walk rate at AA is 1.4% higher than any other year, but 21.6% strikeout rate is 2.7% higher than any other season), but he’s still produced a very nice Isolated Power number in a luck neutral situation. He’s a plus defender at the corners and an average defender in center, and he should be poised to attempt AAA next year. He’s never going to be a walk machine but it does seem like the Sox have effectively pushed him away from the Francoeurian path that he was headed down in 2007. I really like his chances of being an effective regular for Boston by the start of 2010, but his current year numbers preclude a higher grade.

26. Jhoulys Chacin – RHP, Colorado Rockies DOB 1/7/88 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AA 103.1 IP, 87 H, 35 BB, 86 K, 4.09 FIP, 62% GB
AAA 14.1 IP, 11 H, 13 BB, 11 K, 6.47 FIP, 69% GB
As an extreme ground ball pitcher, Chacin is an excellent fit for Coors field, and one of the better groundball pitchers in the minors. When you consider his age and current production at AA, it’s clear that it is easy to project further strikeouts as he becomes more comfortable with his skin, as well. I don’t think he’ll be a strikeout machine by any means, but he doesn’t have to be more than slightly above league average to be extremely productive with his ground ball skills. His 8.1% walk percentage and 20% strikeout percentage speak strongly to his future potential, though the hit total won’t be that low as he moves up, as the average on balls in play was just .265. If he were 23 in AA, I wouldn’t be as high on him, but given his age, I think it’s likely he’ll miss more bats as he matures, and he’ll be able to limit more hits not from luck, but from missing bats. With his current production he’d project as a useful back-end guy, but if he matures further, he’ll be a potential #2 starter that fits perfectly in Coors. Hopefully they don’t rush him to the bigs like they did for nearly 8 innings this year.

27. Jennry Mejia – RHP, New York Mets DOB 10/11/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 50.1 IP, 41 H, 16 BB, 44 K, 2.48 FIP, 68% GB
AA: 38.2 IP, 39 H, 18 BB, 41 K, 3.41 FIP, 62% GB
I’ll be completely honest: I was down on Neftali Feliz before he exploded onto the scene in the Texas bullpen, and I’ve been down on Mejia for quite awhile. I just don’t buy flamethrowing Latin American Teenagers because the burnout rate is enormous. It’s hard to ignore Mejia, however, as he combined strong stuff and scouting reports with favorable production at a high level that he’s way, way young for. The walk rate is reasonable, at around 9%, the K rate is very solid at 22.5% and the average on balls in play across both levels is just about average. He gets a tremendous amount of ground balls and is getting out despite being pretty raw. I think he leans on the side of elite more than projection, as he’s performed on the field and that performance matches his scouting reports, so I think he could skyrocket. As is, I want to see his secondary offerings advance past the point of just being an exciting potential arm before I move him up further, but if you put a preference on tools and stuff, there are few that can match Mejia. He’s not too bad to look at for someone like myself, who values production, either.

28. Jeremy Hellickson – RHP, Tampa Bay Rays DOB 4/8/87 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AA 56.2 IP, 41 H, 14 BB, 62 K, 2.78 FIP, 38% GB
AAA 50.1 IP, 28 H, 15 BB, 61 K, 2.90 FIP, 41 % GB
I’ll be completely honest with you: I don’t think Hellickson’s stuff is going to grade out very highly when you compare with other pitchers, but it’s really hard to match the production. He has routinely walked very few batters while fanning quite a few, and the argument was always that his stuff wouldn’t hold up as well at higher levels. Well, through 107 innings this season, he’s fanning nearly 10 batters per 9 innings, and while his walk rate is up, it might be an indication of improving stuff as he ages. He doesn’t get a lot of ground balls but he can get by if he’s missing bats at the clip he is. He’s been really lucky in terms of balls in play, as the highest the average against him has been this year is .262, which is very low, but it doesn’t change the great K numbers at high levels. Personally, I’ve had enough of doubting him. I said for a few years that he would flame out by now, and he hasn’t. I think he’s passed Wade Davis on the Rays pitching depth chart and I think he’s a good bet to open with the team next season out of spring training, perhaps with Davis. Makes the wretched Kazmir trade a little more palatable, in my opinion.

29. Casey Kelly – RHP, Boston Red Sox DOB 10/4/89 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
A 48.1 IP, 32 H, 9 BB, 39 K, 2.43 FIP, 55% GB
Hi-A: 46.2 IP, 33 H, 7 BB, 35 K, 3.46 FIP, 51% GB
Casey Kelly is a personal favorite of mine, largely because I’m also a Red Sox fan. He signed for a huge bonus as a late first round pick last year, and he signed on the condition that he be given a shot to stick at SS. He has not hit to this point at the position, so I will not list his hitting stats. It’s clear to me that his future is on the mound, and I think when he dedicates all of his attention to that, his numbers are going to skyrocket. Already we can see great control of the strike zone, strong ground ball tendencies and at least some ability to miss bats, something that I think will improve as he dedicates complete time to the position. Still, he’s fanning over 20% and walking less than 5%, a ratio you’ll always take. He’s also reached Hi-A despite the fact that he won’t turn 20 until after the season ends. He was mighty lucky, with an average on balls in play of just .237, though his stuff may be so strong that he’s hitting the poor part of the bat on overmatched hitters quite a bit. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball right now, though scouts think he’ll add velocity as time goes on. His secondary stuff is very advanced for his age, and his mechanics are smooth. You’re looking at a front-end starting candidate with a complete repertoire and few question marks once he moves to pitching full time. I would be very surprised he is not a top ten prospect during his first year as a full-time pitcher, which hopefully comes next year.

30. Wade Davis – RHP, Tampa Bay Rays DOB 9/7/85 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AAA: 158 IP, 139 H, 60 BB, 140 K, 3.79 FIP, 41% GB
Wade Davis is an overrated prospect, but he’s overrated in the sense that he shouldn’t be in the top 25, not in the sense that he’s not a good prospect. He does not have the statistical profile of a front-end starting pitcher, and I think his upside is more of an innings eating three or four type. After struggling for most of 2008 in AA, fanning just 17% of the batters he faced, he got a late season promotion to AAA and fanned 24% of the batter he faced, walking nearly 11%. In 2009, in a full season at AAA, he’s not striking out quite as many as the end of last year (just 21%) but still far more than his campaign at AA. He’s also chopped his walk rate by 2% and has become more efficient. His average on balls in play is still low (.280) but it’s less low than last year (.265). He’s essentially become a flyball pitcher, but as long as he carries his missing-bats success to the next level, I think he’ll be another solid pitcher to insert in the back of the rotation. It’s a myth to think he projects as a front-end type, though. Doesn’t have good enough control and/or good enough strikeout rates to expect that. He’s also not a spring-chicken, at nearly 24, so the time is now for Davis.

21. Kyle Drabek — SP, Philadelphia Phillies DOB 12/8/87 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 61.2 IP, 49 H, 19 BB, 74 K, 46% GB, 1.77 FIP
AA: 96.1 IP, 92 H, 31 BB, 76 K, 42% GB 3.74 FIP
I tend to think I’m right in the middle in regard to my Kyle Drabek evaluations. Considering he is coming off Tommy John Surgery just a few years past, his rise to AA this season is pretty impressive. His performance at a level where he was age appropriate, at 21, in A Ball, he dominated. He was not lucky, with a .325 BABIP against, and he didn’t allow baserunners unnecessarily, walking just 7.6% of the batters he faced, while fanning 29.7%. In AA, he hasn’t had quite as much success, sporting a slightly low .299 average on balls in play, and just an 18.8% K rate, though I’m willing to chalk most of that up to his relative rawness against advanced competition, given the injury. His tendencies are certainly not of the ground ball/strikeout variety, but given his quality arsenal, there’s no reason to think the strikeouts won’t improve next season as he moves beyond Tommy John. Personally, I like him more than Bumgarner, but given Bumgarner’s age and similar performance, it was impossible to rank Drabek higher.

22. Pedro Alvarez — 3B?, Pittsburgh Pirates DOB 2/6/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .249/.344/.490, 37 BB – 70 K, .241 ISOP
AA: .333/.419/.590, 34 BB – 59 K, .257 IsoP, .407 BABIP!
Pedro Alvarez is a guy that folks in the scouting community have had plenty of opportunity to find fault with, largely because of overly lofty expectations. There are some concerns over where Alvarez will play as a pro, though the bat will play at either 1B or 3B. I think he’ll get every shot to stay at 3B, though I don’t know his glove will be terribly valuable there. He’s not going to hit for a high average in the pros, but he has good walk ability and tremendous power potential. His .333 average in AA is ENTIRELY a product of a disturbingly high average on balls in play, though it’s hard to argue with his 21% Line Drive Percentage. I think Alvarez will improve on his contact skills over time (he’s cut his strikeout percentage from 24.8 to 22.9% across the two levels this season), and I think the power spike in AA is for real. I don’t see any reason to think he won’t be a middle of the lineup type hitter, though he’ll shift back in ranking if he’s just a 1B, since he’s suddenly behind some other guys on this list.

23. Chris Carter — 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics DOB 12/18/86 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .337/.436/.576 82 BB-119K .239 IsoP, .406 BABIP
AAA: .294/.308/588 (SSS)
Traded in both the Carlos Quentin and Danny Haren deals, Carter has certainly gotten around. Carter is not exactly a wizard defensively, but unlike Jesus Montero of Yankees fame, Carter appears to at least have the athleticism and wherewithall to potentially handle first base on an average level. Carter sacrificed some power (isolated power down .71 points from 2008) in exchange for cutting down on his strikeout rate (shaved 5.1% off), and is still a reputable power source. He has become a more complete hitter, though in all probability, his future lies with his power. His .406 average on balls in play is entirely unsustainable, but it’s not hard to see a .290/.400/.530 line as he moves forward if he can continue his understanding of the strike zone. I’ll say this: in looking at video, he’s clearly more athletic than he’s gotten credit for, and is one of the true plus power threats in the minor leagues delivering on that promise.

24. Christian Friedrich — SP, Colorado Rockies, DOB 7/8/87 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
A: 45.1 IP, 35 H, 15 BB, 66 K, 2.20 FIP, 61% GB
A+: 73.1 IP, 56 H, 28 BB, 91 K, 3.14 FIP, 40% GB
The two things that stand out to you should be the enormous amount of strikeouts and the giant discrepancy in ground ball percentage between A and Hi-A. I don’t think Friedrich is THIS GOOD of a strikeout machine, but he has one of the best curves in the minors and he’s abusing lower level pitchers. The real test in that regard will be as he moves forward in the minors to AA next year. He has a quality fastball and an elite, plus-plus curve to go with a developing change which he probably hasn’t needed much to this point. He was actually unlucky in A Ball with a .347 average on balls in play, but he’s been pretty luck neutral in Hi-A. I don’t think that he’ll have a strong ground ball tendency, but he will have to improve on that as he moves up to Coors or a lot of flyballs are going to leave the yard. In total, he’s fanning well over 30% of the batters he’s faced during the season, and he’s walking less than 9% despite there being some concern over control coming up. He was raw as a college draftee in 2008, but he’s showing no effects of that. The Age-Relative-Production of folks like Bumgarner and Drabek (both at AA) keep Friedrich from moving higher up on this list, but I think he’s passed Jhoulys Chacin on this list given his strikeout tendencies (though isn’t necessarily a better fit for Coors himself).

25. Brett Wallace — 3B?, Oakland Athletics, DOB 8/26/86 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA: .281/.391/.438 18 BB-34 K .157 IsoP, .348 BABIP
AAA: .293/.346/.423 15 BB-42 K .179 IsoP, .350 BABIP
AAA: .302/.365/.481 13 BB-35 K .130 IsoP .339 BABIP
I’ll be honest, Brett Wallace at #25 is higher than his statistics suggest, but I absolutely believe in his skillset, and don’t believe he’s completely performing at his full level, yet, considering how much he’s been jerked around (no more than 243 PA at any level). At his best, Wallace has excellent contact skills, a good eye and quality power, though not elite. He makes perpetually solid contact and knows how to put the ball in the correct place. There are concerns over his defensive acumen at third base but the reports have not been awful on him over there this season. I think he’s a solid bet to product an .825-.850 OPS with slightly below average defense at the hot corner as early as next year, and I expect his hitting to improve even further as he becomes more comfortable with his position. I think the walk rate will improve, too, though if it doesn’t, he’s in for a steep drop. When I read scouting reports, I think Kevin Youkilis, without quite the flare for the walks. That’s the reason he’s here, along with his advanced progress as a prospect. His floor as a useful major leaguer is extremely high, with a ceiling that’s still pretty solid as well.