BaseBallstotheWall

The next installment of prospect analysis:

16. Logan Morrison — 1B, Florida Marlins DOB 8/25/87 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
AA: .273/.414/.442, 58 BB-38 K
You’ll come to find out three things pretty quickly when it comes to my prospect analysis: I value a track record of performance, an ability to control the strike zone and people who can hit right-handed pitching. I don’t think it’s a huge knock if you cannot hit lefties, as Morrison’s dramatic splits will attest to (.914 v R, .740 v L). Morrison will hit well against 80% of major league pitchers, and he’ll control the strike zone to boot, as justified by his absurd 19% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate. He’s having some injury woes this year, but he’s young for his level and has flirted with more power in the past. Even if he doesn’t deliver on his power promise, he’s a strong bet to be a .300/.400/.500 threat versus right-handed pitching with excellent strike-zone management. I imagine Morrison as similar to what I thought Casey Kotchman would be coming up. It’s important to note that he’s been relatively unlucky this year (.303 BaBIP, 21% LD), so you could see a further improvement of his numbers. He’s not a bad fielder, either, but with his size (6’3, 245), his range is understandably limiting him to first.

17. Madison Bumgarner — SP, San Francisco Giants DOB 8/1/89 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A 24 IP, 20 H, 4 BB, 23 K, 41% GB, 2.61 FIP
AA 92 IP, 72 H, 28 BB, 68 K, 44% GB, 3.38 FIP
Bumgarner’s obviously ranked lower than where he’ll generally be, and you’ll be hard to find anyone to tell you that Carlos Carrasco and Hector Rondon are better pitching prospects than him, so let’s focus on why they think that, first. To start, he’s extremely young, turning 20 after 80% of the season was finished, so he’s got plenty of room to fill out and continue to perform. He’s left-handed with an extreme power arsenal. He controls the strike zone, walking 4 and 7.7% of the batters he’s faced across the two levels, respectively. What’s holding him back, however, is the fact that his strikeout rate at AA is a pedestrian 18%, he his trending towards a fly-ball type pitcher, and his arsenal lacks anything that resembles an above-average offspeed pitch. We can make all the arguments we want about left-handedness, velocity and age relative to league, but until he develops another pitch, he really is not to be considered above near finished products who are only narrowly older than him. Certainly if he adds a premium off-speed pitch he’ll skyrocket to the top, but he is not in the league of Jarrod Parker, Stephen Strasburg, or even Hector Rondon, right now.

18. Matt Moore — SP, Tampa Bay Rays, DOB 6/18/89 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
A: 114.1 IP, 81 H, 64 BB, 159K, 50% GB, 2.97 FIP
I like Matt Moore, a lot, but I could not justify including him above a player that is younger than him who was only slightly worse when he was in A Ball last season. It’s not Madison Bumgarner’s fault that he is being rushed (though it might be his fault that he doesn’t have the requisite secondary pitches). Moore hasn’t been lucky this season, has a chance to be a brilliant strikeout/groundout combination and misses bats extremely well from the left side. He’s a little bit wild, with a 13.3% walk rate, but he’s raw and is being handled with kid gloves. Moore has a fastball that can reach 94 MPH with some room for increased velocity and a tight curveball. He’s developing a change as well, and that will determine how far he can go as a starter. It is important to note that Moore has gotten consistently better over the course of the season, and could be on the fast track if he continues his production next season, though the rays are notoriously slow with prospect promotions. His ceiling is through the roof.

19. Desmond Jennings — CF, Tampa Bay Rays, DOB 10/30/86 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA .313/.393/.483 48 BB-52 K (37 SB!)
AAA .305/.389/.451 12 BB-11K
Jennings, a legit five-tool talent, is still very young for AAA despite being held back numerous times due to injury. He has excellent defensive ability in centerfield and can run with the best of them out there. He makes contact at an excellent clip, striking out just 3 more times than he has walked on the season. Given his speed and line drive skills, he hasn’t been particularly lucky or unlucky with his performance. It is unclear about exactly how much power Jennings is going to develop as time goes on, but he certainly has the skillset to accommodate it. If he develops power, there is very little separating him from Domonic Brown, but staying the course still puts him very similarly with Cameron Maybin and Dexter Fowler of years past. He is an ideal prospect in the sense that he has a relatively high floor along with a relatively high ceiling.

20. Michael Taylor — COF, Philadelphia Phillies DOB 12/19/85 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
AA .334/.409/.571 35 BB-51 K
AAA .282/.359/.491 13 BB-19 K
Michael Taylor had an excellent season in 2008 between A and Hi-A and his second full season, but no one really paid attention given a very high average on balls in play. It’s time to pay attention now, as Taylor is putting up huge numbers for a second straight season. His contact rates have always been good, but he’s improving his walk rates, bettering his isolated power and handling a neutralized batting average as well. While his average in play at AA was a still high .363, he’s still hitting .282 with a .302 BABIP at AAA, so he’s clearly a hitter. There is no reason to doubt that he is the next big slugger coming up for Philadelphia, and the likely replacement for Raul Ibanez once he rots of old age.

Here is a look at the next batch of prospects, ranked 11-15, on my top 100 list. You can expect numbers 16-20 to show up some time tomorrow night. Again, please note, any prospect projected to pass prospect thresholds is not going to be on this list.

11. Domonic Brown — CF, Philadelphia Phillies DOB 10/3/87 Bats Left
2009 Statistics:
Hi-A: .303/.386/.517 34 BB-48 K
AA: .318/.368/.557 7 BB-18K
Formerly known as “Dominic” until he mentioned that the Phillies had been misspelling his name for the past THREE Years, Domonic Brown is a legit five tool talent who put it all together this season across two levels. While he has had some injury concerns that sidelined him for a bit, they were nothing major, and he compiled nearly 400 plate appearances, which is enough to call his breakout real. He’s always had excellent contact skills, especially for a high school draftee, but he’s added power to his game (14 homers this year, slugging well over .500) as well as peppering in some walks (nearly a 10% walk rate across the two levels). There’s plenty of reason to think, considering his age, that there is more development yet to come from a power perspective, as well. One cause for concern with Brown is a high BABIP (.372 at AA, .342 at Hi-A) but considering the athleticism and the contact rates (19% Line Drive Percentage at Hi-A), it is not that far from unsustainable. He reminds me of a more athletic Michael Saunders, another underrated prospect just up with the Seattle Mariners.

12. Martin Perez — SP, Texas Rangers DOB 4/4/91 Throws Left
2009 Performance:
A: 93.2 IP, 82 H, 33 BB, 105 K 51% GB 3.23 FIP
AA: 6.2 IP, 14 H, 3 BB, 7 K 58% GB 6.44 FIP
I would frankly completely ignore the AA performance and marvel at the two-level jump that the Rangers decided to give to Perez late in the 2009 season. He has tremendous raw stuff including a plus fastball and curveball, and he has dominated at a level he is very young for. In A Ball, he’s facing players between 21 and 24 years old, on average, and he won’t turn 19 until the beginning of next season. His K rate improved from 19.1% last year in short-season ball to 26.9% in A Ball. He cut his walk rate by 1.7%. He improved his ground ball percentage and wasn’t lucky in any capacity. The only thing holding him back from the top 10 is having a long track record of success. If he keeps this up at Hi-A or AA next year, I expect to hear Felix Hernandez comps, or, gasp, even Johan Santana comps. Can you imagine Feliz, Holland and Perez fronting the Rangers rotation? Good Grief.

13. Dustin Ackley — CF, Seattle Mariners DOB 2/26/88 Bats Left
2009 Performance:
No Minor League Performance
This is an aggressive ranking with Ackley, but I just have no reservations about the skillset he offers. He’s going to hit for average, he’s going to steal bases, he’s going to play premium defense somewhere (whether it be 1B, 2B, CF, etc.) and he’s going to control the strike zone. The question is really about how many homers he’ll hit, but even if he only winds up as a 15-20 homer guy, the rest of his game will translate very well to the majors. He’s kind of a unique player, too, and we don’t see a lot of people like him. I realize that a “more athletic Tony Gwynn” label is absurd, but that’s the type of hitter I think Ackley can be. I think an accurate projection is Darin Erstad, if he actually deserved the hype bestowed on him.

14. Carlos Carrasco — SP, Cleveland Indians DOB 3/21/87 Throws Right
2009 Statistics:
AAA: 150 IP, 145 H, 44 BB, 145 K, 40% GB, 3.78 FIP
Carrasco, the big part in the return that sent Cliff Lee to the Indians, has been around for a long, long time in prospect circles, yet he’s just 22. He’s repeating AAA, so it’s easy to forget how young he is when evaluating him. He’s missing bats at an excellent rate (23%), avoiding walks (6% walk rate) and is generally pitching luck free, minus a small sample size with Columbus. He doesn’t do a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s still a very competent pitcher with a quality repertoire of power and secondary offerings, and he has a long track record of success. He’s going to be able to help the Indians at the front or middle of their rotation within the next year, much like Rondon, and the Indians can be fairly sure what they’re getting isn’t a fluke.

15. Daniel Hudson — SP, Chicago White Sox DOB 3/9/87 Throws Right
2009 Statistics:
A 22 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 30 K, 1.43 FIP, 53% GB
Hi-A 45 IP, 31 H, 13 BB, 49 K, 3.03 FIP, 51% GB
AA 57.1 IP, 39 H, 10 BB, 64 K, 1.76 FIP, 40% GB
AAA 21 IP, 21 H, 8 BB, 19 K, 3.38 FIP, 32% GB
Hudson is having a season that I simply cannot ignore any longer, and I believe he merits top 15 consideration despite not having the pure stuff of some of the pitchers that will rank behind him. While it appears he may have finally met his match in AAA as a 22 year-old, he has continually missed bats at every level. He has been a bit fortunate, with a batting average on balls in play of just .257 at Hi-A and .279 at AA, but even neutralization makes his numbers ridiculous. He was a fifth rounder coming out of Old Dominion, and had been pretty disappointing, but it appears the White Sox have made the adjustments to improve his game. I’m uncertain about whether or not his above average, but not elite, offerings will translate as well to the majors, particularly considering the troubles with AAA, but his combination of good stuff and excellent track record make him a safe, interesting prospect with a relatively low floor but an appreciable ceiling. If he can return to the ground ball tendencies that he had shown earlier in the season, he’ll improve his stock even further.

With the recent August 15th signing deadline for all 2009 draft picks (with the exception of Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, neither of whom were really strong bets to make a prospect list to begin with), there is now nothing stopping the creation of prospect lists to evaluate the past season. While I place a strong value in on-field performance, it would be both impossible and foolish to ignore what scouts have to say when evaluating a particular player. In other words, numbers are great, but not everything.

Before I begin, a bit of a note on what I value in regard to prospects. For pitchers and hitters alike, I value their age relative to their league and competition, so the more productive they are at a young age, the better. For pitchers in particular, I value the ability to keep the ball on the ground and the ability to miss bats, which is really the only evidence we have to predict future performance. For hitters, I value strong contact ability and a discerning eye, as I tend to believe power will come with those attributes, and I know that hitters who strike out a lot at lower levels are unlikely to make enough contact to make it at the major league level.

With all that said, here’s a look at the top 10 prospects in baseball entering 2010 who will retain prospect eligibility at the end of the 2009 season:

1. Jason Heyward — COF, Atlanta Braves DOB: 8/9/89
2009 Performance:
Hi-A .296/.369/.519, 21 BB-30 K
AA .338/.436/.609 26 BB-17 K
It’s hard to find something not to like about Heyward, the 14th overall pick in 2007. Like a lot of the traditional first-round high school selections, Heyward was full of tools, but what separated him at the time was an uncanny feel for baseball. That feel has translated to a mature approach almost unheard of for his age. As if his .888 OPS at Hi-A at age nineteen wasn’t impressive enough, he has since been on an absolute rampage at AA, posting nine more walks than strikeouts. Keep in mind, folks, that Heyward is consistently facing pitchers with advanced secondary offerings and who are anywhere between two (at the conservative end of the spectrum) to five years older than him, and he is not just holding his own, he is dominating. He has been somewhat fortunate with a .346 average on balls in play, but that’s not terribly unreasonable considering his impressive 23% line drive percentage. He is at least solid-average defensively with a solid arm, so he won’t be costing his team any runs there, either.

2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals DOB 7/20/88
2009 Performance:
No Minor League Stats
Everyone has heard about Stephen Strasburg. I’m actually tired of hearing about Stephen Strasburg, though I’m very happy that the Nationals wisely invested in him, considering he’s likely to return more than the signing bonus in just jersey sales, ignoring any production he provides in the future. While he’s obviously a great prospect, as evidenced by his 195 strikeouts, 19 walks and 65 hits allowed in 119 IP, it is still college, and he’s facing players that cannot handle his fastball. He also has an excellent slider, by all accounts, but I am concerned about how much he’s needed anything beyond his fastball. I’m not disagreeing that he is one of the better prospects I’ve ever heard of in college baseball, but let’s see how he handles improved hitters and tougher situations before giving him the #1 spot. Even if he lives up to everything that has been suggested of him, I’m not sure I’d take him over Heyward, who has been dominating players much older than him for quite awhile.

3. Brian Matusz — SP, Baltimore Orioles DOB 2/11/07, Throws Left
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 66.2 IP, 56 H, 21 BB, 74 K, 49% GB, 3.09 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
AA: 46.1 IP, 31 H, 11 BB, 46 K, 49% GB, 2.47 FIP
MLB 18.2 IP, 31 H, 8 BB, 20 K, 28% GB, 5.09 FIP
I’m taking the calculated gamble that Matusz will not reach the 50 inning mark before the end of the season, which would make him ineligible as a prospect. I thought long and hard about putting Matusz above Strasburg, but when you consider college performance (as both played in college), it’s reasonable to predict Strasburg will be even better. I just value production, and Matusz has it in spades. As you’ll note above, I prefer Fielding Independent Pitching to Earned Run Average, as I believe it to be a better predictor of a pitchers overall performance. There tends to be a large variance between FIP and ERA if the pitcher’s Team Defense is particularly good or bad, and I believe FIP is a more accurate way to compare pitchers at similar levels. Matusz has controlled the strike zone, he has missed bats, and, at least at a reasonable level, he has kept the ball on the ground, though his pedigree would suggest more grounders as time advances. He has struggled a bit so far at the major league level, including that dismal ground ball rate, but the most telling sign is the strikeouts averaging out to more than one an inning. As Bill James has mentioned numerous times, the most predictable indicator of success for a pitcher is strikeout rate, and thus, I expect Matusz to match his minor league numbers sooner rather than later.

4. Justin Smoak — 1B, Texas Rangers 12/5/86 Bats Switch
2009 Performance:
AA .329/.449/.481 39 BB-35 K
AAA .247/.370/.363 33 BB-39 K
Smoak is an excellent combination of evaluation plus performance, as he was regarded as a Mark Teixeira type coming out of college, and inexplicably fell all the way to Texas in the 2008 draft. He plays near gold-glove caliber defense at first base, and he controls the strike zone excellently, as evidenced by the high on-base percentage and the low strikeout total. The power hasn’t come yet, as he’s hit only 9 homers between AA and AAA this season, but I have no doubt they will come, and I’m not worried about them impacting his value much either way. He sports borderline ridiculous line drive percentages of 24 and 28 percent between the two levels this season, so you would expect his average on balls in play (BABIP, for short) to be higher than .302 at AAA (somewhere between .340-.350 would be more reasonable), which would raise his average and on-base percentage at AAA accordingly. Even if the power doesn’t come, he’s a top 10 first baseman with his defense, contact skills and on-base skills, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be a 25-30 homer threat soon enough.

5. Buster Posey — C, San Francisco Giants DOB 3/27/87 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .326/.428/.540 45 BB-45 K
AAA: .294/.373/.500 14 BB-18 K
Posey is a true asset, and is just a notch below the Matt Wieters mold. I’m such a firm believer in Justin Smoak’s all-around package that I could not justify putting Posey ahead of him, but I’d be quibbling if I said there was a noticeable difference between the two, and struggling considering Posey’s plus defensive advantage. Much like Smoak and Heyward before him, Posey has an excellent command of the strike zone, but unlike Smoak, he has also demonstrated strong power skills at a premium position. He doesn’t hit the ball quite as well on a line as Smoak does, however (17 and 19% Line Drive Percentages), which means that his .352 average on balls in play in Hi-A might be a bit unsustainable, and that his .294 line at AAA might be more in line with what to expect in the future, which is still perfectly acceptable for a catcher. His two level jump mid-season is equally impressive. Unless the Giants want to be ultra-conservative, it’s hard to imagine him not being a fixture in the middle of the order by next year.

6. Carlos Santana — C, Cleveland Indians DOB 4/8/86 Bats Switch
2009 Performance:
AA .286/.410/.525 79 BB-76 K
I originally had Santana ranked second on my list, but thought better of it and bumped him to sixth. Santana is an impact talent that has been largely unheralded, until now. He controls the strike zone very well, as evidenced by walking three more times than he has struck out, and he hits for power, as evidenced by his .525 slugging percentage. The average is a bit lower than you’d like to see from a premium prospect, but his average on balls in play (.312) might be a little lower than standard, too. While he struggled offensively in 2006 and 2007, a lot of that can be chalked up to learning the catching position with the Dodgers, who questionably dealt him for Casey Blake midway through 2008, assuming his 2008 offensive outburst was fluky. He’s not a big guy (listed at 5’11/170), but he’s surprisingly athletic and seems to translate very well to the big leagues, with a strong quality eye and good power.

7. Michael Stanton — COF, Florida Marlins DOB 11/8/09 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .294/.390/.579 28 BB:45 K
AA: .238/.321/.464 27 BB:84 K
There are some people that will tell you that Stanton’s a better prospect than Heyward simply because of his plus-plus power tool, but I will strongly agree with that assessment. Stanton is a very impressive prospect in his own right, as he has slugged 25 homers and walked 55 times in 432 at-bats, though he has also struck out an uncomfortable 129 times. I take solace in the fact that 84 of those strikeouts are at AA, which is a level he frankly shouldn’t be playing at. His improvement in strikeout rate was pretty impressive in his 182 at-bats at Hi-A, but he needed to have a stronger sample size at the level before being bumped. No surprise, he was simply not ready to handle that aspect of AA, but he’s still slugging a very impressive .464 for his age, as he won’t be 20 until after the season ends. There’s not much reason to doubt that his athleticism will translate reasonably to the defensive end, and that he will continue to mature as a hitter. I think it would be very wise to allow Stanton a full year at AA next season to refine his understanding of breaking pitches and the strike zone, but it’s still hard to imagine him not eventually figuring out. Even if he takes another two years, he’ll reach the majors by 22. That’s pretty impressive.

8. Jesus Montero — ?, New York Yankees DOB 11/28/89 Bats Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: .356/.406/.583 14 BB/26 K
AA: .317/.370/.539 14 BB/21 K
Montero is the third person on this list who reached AA when he was nineteen, but his lack of position hurts his stock a bit on this list. His bat is potentially better than Stanton’s, but Stanton’s ability to play a competitive right field puts him ahead of Montero, who is not going to stick at catcher and loses some value at first base or designated hitter. On a positive note, Montero has an excellent, almost uncanny, ability to make contact and put the ball in play. He’s also hit seventeen home runs between two levels and has handled everything thrown at him admirably. In addition to the defensive concerns, there’s some concern over his .356 batting average at Hi-A, considering his unsustainable .384 average on balls in play, but regression there is still nothing to scoff at. I’m also personally a little concerned about his walk rate, at just 7.4% on the season, though that should go up as pitchers pitch around him and he learns to take some pitches. There’s plenty of time for that develop, and he’s already making enough contact where it’s not a huge woe, but to nitpick, it’s an area of his game I’d like to see improve.

9. Jarrod Parker — SP, Arizona Diamondbacks DOB 11/24/88 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
Hi-A: 19 IP, 12 H, 4 BB, 21 K, 68% GB, 2.18 FIP
AA: 78.1 IP, 82 H, 34 BB, 74 K, 56% GB, 3.09 FIP
I would have Parker potentially up there with Strasburg and Matusz were it not for an arm injury that has shut him down for the rest of 2009. While his AA performance is not mind-blowing by any stretch, he was hampered by a .354 average on balls in play and some likely arm troubles at the end of the season, as he struggled in two of his final three starts. Assuming health, I anticipate more in line with the Hi-A Numbers. He’s exactly what you want in a pitcher, by which I mean strong groundball rate and strong strikeout numbers. His walk rate is a bit high, but as long as he supports it with a quality strikeout rate and impressive stuff, it doesn’t worry me much. He’s also still 20 at his level, which is very young, and has only been pitching professionally in full season for two years, so there’s really plenty of time to work things out. If he’s healthy, he’s the favorite to be the #1 prospect at the end of next season.

10. Hector Rondon — SP, Cleveland Indians DOB 2/26/88 Throws Right
2009 Performance:
AA: 72 IP, 60 H, 16 BB, 75 K, 41% GB, 2.43 FIP
AAA 53.2 IP, 57 H, 10 BB, 50 K, 34% GB, 2.68 FIP
I believe Rondon may be even more underrated than Carlos Santana is, and believe he is firmly a fringe top 10 prospect. He has quality offerings including quality secondary stuff, he misses bats effectively and he’s actually been a bit unlucky at AAA, with a .346 average on balls in play against him. His fielding independent pitching at both levels is very impressive, as well. The red flag is obviously the flyball percentage, but I think he’ll get by considering his pinpoint control (roughly a 5% walk rate over the course of the season) and his strong strikeout rate (24%, roughly). He ultimately reminds me of what people think Red Sox prospect Michael Bowden is, which is to say he misses bats but occasionally succumbs to the home run ball. I think he’ll be very success in the pros, and unlike a lot of prospects, has proven it consistently in the minors. He may not have the “upside” of Bumgarner or Martin Perez, or the name value of Wade Davis or Kyle Drabek, but he has proven it consistently at higher levels and is ready to help now. That gives him the nod, to me.